In today’s briefing:
- Intel Missed the Party, while AMD’s ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game
- UI: Revenue Trending Higher, PT to $240
- Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets
- Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag
- VRA: Snapping the Store: Shocking the System; Reiterate Buy, PT
- IMMR: Book Value Rises, PT Now $13.50
- RVPH: August OLE Update
- CING: Initiating Coverage – Precision Timed Release Delivers Active-Day Coverage
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Intel Missed the Party, while AMD’s ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game
- First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it.
- Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs FactSet $0.10, announces $10B cost reduction plan; suspends dividend
- There was another layoff of around 15% of employees, a full dividend suspension (finally, guys), and a capex cut.
UI: Revenue Trending Higher, PT to $240
- Ubiquiti delivered its first quarterly revenue of more than $500 million as the Company generated free cash flow to further reduce its debt balance.
- Ubiquiti reported fiscal fourth quarter (June) results that were lower than we were forecasting as we assumed service provider segment would continue to trend higher sequentially.
- Ubiquiti is now on a revenue trajectory of achieving over $500 million in quarterly revenue along with gross margin of over 40 percent.
Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets
- Hedge Funds Pushing into Commodities Markets Big trading houses like Glencore, Trafigura, Mercuria or Vitol are benefiting since years now from the increasing fluctuations on the commodities markets.
- This trend increased, especially since crude oil went negative when the Covid pandemic started and was followed by further volatility since the macro environment became even more fragile with the war in Ukraine and now the conflicts in the Middle East.
- According to Ney York based consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the gross margin of trading houses amounted to 105 billion dollars in 2023.
Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag
- The biggest shift in FX markets is a lower range of interest rates in the US, signaling a regime shift towards Fed rate cuts.
- Dollar strength is diminishing due to lower rates and softer US inflation, impacting carry trades and high yield currencies.
- Euro-Dollar may benefit from lower yields, but its upside potential is uncertain amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty.
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VRA: Snapping the Store: Shocking the System; Reiterate Buy, PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $10 price target and projections as we review our mail line store visits for August.
- August represents the first monthly store tours where the main line stores have their full compliment of fixtures and products to represent the launch of their New Day (which was July 11th); further, unlike the outlet stores (which completed their New Day conversion on August 22nd), the change for the main line locations was a complete product reset, a true “shock to the system,” positioning Vera Bradley on a new course with a wider offering of fabrics, a materially easier to shop store, an emphasis on handbags, complete leather collections and even new logos.
- While we view these changes as longer term positives which position Vera Bradley for a new generation of shoppers, we do acknowledge that, like any shock, the near term impacts can be messy as the prior core shopper adjust and new shoppers slowly shift their views on Vera Bradley.
IMMR: Book Value Rises, PT Now $13.50
- IMMR reported second quarter results that included partial results from Barnes & Noble Education (BNED), which IMMR owns approximately 42 percent of.
- We believe the decision to carry the BNED position at investment value might have distorted the true value of IMMR.
- Hidden in IMMR’s 10Q filing was the resolution of the patent lawsuit against Xiaomi. The settlement resulted in IMMR reporting a larger than expected revenue figure for IMMR.
RVPH: August OLE Update
- Reviva is a research and development pharmaceutical company with two portfolio compounds targeting nine indications.
- The candidates address multiple related mental disorders, rare diseases & other categories of un met need.
- Reviva’s lead indication in schizophrenia with brilaroxazine (RP5063) completed its 1st Phase III trial & began its 2nd in 2Q:24.
CING: Initiating Coverage – Precision Timed Release Delivers Active-Day Coverage
- Cingulate is developing its Precision Timed Release (PTR) technology to deliver ADHD drugs to improve onset & efficacy of previously approved products.
- The company licensed rights to manufacturing a 3-layer tablet that releases dexmethylphenidate (CTx-1301) over the active day.
- CTx-1301 provides immediate onset, eliminates the need for a booster dose, reduces diversion & simplifies dosing among other benefits.