Daily Brief United States: Ibotta , Mastercard, Astera Labs , Talen Energy , Crude Oil, Micron Technology, Urban-Gro , Guess? Inc, Gaia and more

• Ibotta, a cashback rewards platform provider, files to list IPO on NYSE. The Denver-based technology company was backed by VC investors, GGV Capital, Walmart and Koch Disruptive Technologies.
• Ibotta is a trusted and well-known brand in the cashback space in the United States, and means “I-bought-a”. The company is led by its Founder & CEO, Bryan Leach.
• Considering Ibotta’s strong and profitable growth, low penetration of the addressable market opportunity, and potential international expansion, they should have a successful IPO.

• The electronic financial transactions industry is expanding, with a focus on personalization, the gig economy, and fraud prevention
• Mastercard is well positioned to benefit from the shift away from cash and towards digital payments
• Magellan’s portfolio manager Alyssa DeMarco discusses Mastercard’s growth and innovation with Devin Core, highlighting the company’s evolution over the past decade and its strategic focus on diversification and global expansion

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• Astera Labs, an overvalued fabless semiconductor company, has completed its IPO and raised ~$565M of net proceeds in the offering. The IPO was priced at $36/share.
• Astera Labs shares jumped 70%+ in their first trading day and finished session at $62.03. The stock peaked at $95.21 on Tuesday and fell ~21% over the next 2 days.
• According to their prospectus, ~5.9M shares of Astera Labs will be available for sale following the public release of earnings for 1Q’24, which I expect to be announced in April.

• TLNE announced the sale of three power plants in Texas for a higher figure than we were expecting. TLNE is selling 1.7GW of power in Texas for $785 million
• The Texas power plants decrease TLNE’s footprint to thirteen sites and a total of 10.7 GW owned capacity.
• After the Texas assets are sold TLNE would have thirteen power plants mostly in Pennsylvania with several across other states. Three of which are minority ownerships.

• As of the week ending 15/March, crude inventories fell more than expected (2 million barrels vs 900k barrels expected) led by higher exports and refinery activity.
• Refineries operations have picked up faster than anticipated, with the utilization rate jumping from 80% in early February to nearly 88% by 15/Mar.
• OPEC members like Iraq, UAE, Gabon, and Kuwait, have exceeded their production quotas, raising concerns about adherence.

• U.S. chipmaker Micron Technology Inc. expects deeper cooperation with the Chinese government as Beijing ramps up efforts to boost foreign investment, its CEO said at a forum in the capital Monday.
• Speaking at the China Development Forum, Sanjay Mehrotra hailed the recent release by the State Council of a 24-point plan designed to promote high-level opening-up and attract foreign investment as the latest show of China’s determination to improve its business environment for foreign companies.
• Micron cannot grow its business in China without government support, Mehrotra added, while reaffirming the company’s commitment to expand its business in the world’s second-largest economy, where it has a presence in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Xi’an.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating and $8 price target, but lowering our 2024 projections after urban-gro reported disappointing 4Q23 (December) results, as the company had three material commercial contracts shift from late 4Q into 2024, obscuring what would have been a strong end to the year.
• While the contracts are expected to be materially completed in 2024, management has decided to be highly conservative in their guidance and rebuild credibility going forward.
• Given the current valuation, we believe investors are discounting the urban-gro business model and the potential for the company to register positive EBITDA. While we understand investor skepticism, we believe CEO Brad Nattrass and his team have aggressively cut costs and positioned urban-gro to surprise low Street expectations.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess?
• stores in the Metro NYC area and Long Island.
• We believe, with Spring now beginning to fully flow into stores, Guess?

• Gaia reported solid 4Q23 results, with revenue of $20.7 million, up 6% Y/Y.
• More importantly, the company reported its fourth consecutive quarter of member growth, ending the year with 806,000 members versus 759,000 at the beginning of the year.
• In fact, Gaia resumed member growth in 1Q23 with 7,000 new members.