Daily Brief United States: Hollysys Automation Technologies, Medtronic Plc, Bitcoin Pro, SIGA Technologies and more

• Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) update notes a new MBO proposal at US$25 per share, a bidders shortlist in several weeks and an update on the special meeting. 
• The update suggests several potential bidders and enough shareholders with the required record date to convene the special meeting to appoint independent directors. 
• The MBO proposal, while potentially a delaying tactic, suggests that the Board are under pressure for a solution and is aiming for a friendly takeover. 

• When EOFlow (294090 KS) was suspended on the 11th October, and ceased global sales, either the Medtronic (MDT US) deal was (largely) toast; or it was a tactical move. 
• I’m firmly in the latter camp. Insulet‘s lawsuit was expected. And completing the transaction enables the more financially and legally resource-rich MDT to become the party to the litigation.
• The SPA between Jesse Kim and MDT was expected to complete on 25 October. That was not a hard date. It has now been pushed out to 3 January 2024. 

• Crypto prices are still tracking our expected cycle trend, and the next big test is whether we see another period of consolidation — or if the breakout is finally near.
• We outline a few notable risks in the near term that may stand in the way of the next crypto uptrend: stagnant liquidity, buyer exhaustion, further tightening in financial conditions
• We don’t see these risks as long-term trends and view any downside volatility as an opportunity to increase exposure to the best assets at even better entry prices.

SIGA Technologies has announced the formation by the European Commission of a joint procurement mechanism to source oral TPOXX initially involves 13 countries and is open to all countries in the EU and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This is in anticipation of an initial $18m order of TPOXX in the next 60 days from EU/EFTA member countries; As such, management expects total (global) orders of $164m in FY23. This development allows participating EU/EFTA member countries to acquire courses of oral TPOXX in the near term and efficiently order additional quantities, provided the minimum quantity thresholds are met. While we expect the company’s near-term (H223 and FY24) revenues to be dominated by the replenishment of US government stockpiles, the announced European joint procurement mechanism establishes an important gateway to access an important market and creates longer-term upside revenue potential. Management maintains its FY23 pre-tax operating income guidance of $90–100m.