Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, Microchip Technology, Benson Hill , Copper, SaverOne 2014 , Vera Bradley, Guess? Inc, Imunon , MediciNova and more

• Trump’s energy policy focused on increasing domestic production and exerting pressure on oil exports to bring down prices
• Forecast for 2025 and 2026 predicts global commodities market growth and potential oil price fluctuations
• OPEC members plan to increase capacity in 2025, leading to a large surplus in the oil market and potentially lower prices in 2026

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Initiate a short position in MCHP Target Price Range: $45-50 Time Horizon: 6-12 months 
• Declining fundamentals: Q2 FY2025 revenue declined 48% YoY, with adjusted EPS falling 72% YoY. Valuation concerns: P/E of 36.8x vs. sector median of 22x, unsupported by current performance.  
• Geo-Political risk: 50% of sales from Asia, exposed to potential trade tensions. Operational challenges: Customer destocking and sluggish demand. ETF-Driven price support: Potential for sharp correction if sector rotation occurs. 

• Benson Hill’s share price decline amid no management updates raises concerns of potential buyout failure and urgent funding needs.
• Indiana Resources announced a special dividend after settling with Tanzania, with further shareholder returns expected by 2025.
• Grifols rejected Brookfield Asset Management’s buyout offer, maintaining a 22% discount between Class A and Class B shares.

• The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 583 for the week ending on 22/Nov, reporting a second consecutive weekly fall.
• For the week ending 15/Nov, US oil production fell to 13.2m bpd from 13.4m bpd. Output was at a record high of 13.5m bpd between 11/Oct through 01/Nov.
• US energy producers added two rigs in Texas and one each in Wyoming and Oklahoma. They cut three rigs in Louisiana and one each in California and Colorado.

• Disappointing September/October China lending data with TSF down 9%/24% YoY to 3.7/1.4 trillion RMB Vs. (analysts expectations of 4/1.5 trillion RMB) has led to skepticism about China’s recovery story.
• Copper prices have dropped below 9000 USD/ton and stayed there despite the fall of exchange inventories. 
• We like the LT copper story and see long-term benefits for stocks like Southern Copper (SCCO US), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN), and Teck Resources (TECK US). 

• The company continues to make progress with its international expansion which partially offsets concerns over the challenges in the company’s domestic market.
• Estimating the total number of shares (and by default ADSs) outstanding has been incredibly challenging as the company has financed operations by issuing stock as the market price of the ADSs has fallen.
• We now estimate that the company has 164 million common shares outstanding which equates to 1.8 million ADSs given the new ADS to common ratio of 1 to 90.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $6 price target for Vera Bradley after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.
• With Black Friday and the core of the Holiday shopping season looming, Vera Bradley is focused on emphasizing key price points, driving gifting traffic, leveraging licensed looks (Wicked and Disney) and expanding their offerings to a new, younger customer looking for key gifting and personal items for events and Holiday festivities.
• With discounts similar to last year, we believe management is focused on continuing to expand the Vera Bradley look to a wider range of customers and create a more enduring brand; Xmas 2024 will be a key test.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $29 price target and projections for Guess?
• after visiting stores in the New York City metropolitan and Long Island areas.
• The company has continued to focus on Fall/Winter fashion favorites such as sweaters, outerwear and activewear in multiple looks, fabrics and cuts.

• On November 25, 2024, Imunon, Inc. (IMNN) announced it had reached alignment with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its proposed plan for a Phase 3 trial of IMNN-001 for the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer.
• This includes the overall trial design, the target patient population, the treatment schedule, and the primarly endpoint.
• The finalized protocol is on track to be submitted in December 2024 and we anticipate the 500-patient Phase 3 trial initiating in the first quarter of 2025.

• On November 11, 2024, MediciNova, Inc. (MNOV) announced that it was notified by Genzyme, a subsidiary of Sanofi, that the Sanofi/Novartis litigation was settled.
• While the details are unknown at this time, Medicinova is entitled to receive a certain portion of any monetary damages collected by Genzyme.
• We anticipate an update from the company when further details are available.