In today’s briefing:
- Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought
- [Earnings Review] Exxon Beat Q3 Earnings Expectations with Higher Chemical Margins and Cost Savings
- MSTR = Bitcoin (Garbage) Squared
- [Earnings Review] Chevron Surpasses Expectations on Higher Output and Improved Efficiency
- Old Republic International Corporation: Will Its Expansion of Specialty Underwriting Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers
- The Hanover Insurance Group: How Is The Management Tackling The Financial Strain from Expense Management
- CNA Financial Corporation: An Analysis Into Its Growth in Gross Written Premiums & Profitable Segments & Other Major Drivers
- Lincoln National Corporation: Dealing With Strategic Capital Deployment & 4 Other Critical Challenges! – Major Drivers
- Is C3.ai Really Turning the Tide? A Deep Dive Into Reddit’s Favorite AI Enterprise!
- BBW: Snapping the Store: Ready for Holiday Moments; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT
Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought
- Last Thursday, I shared my conviction in our Telegram crypto chat:
- My two cents: We touch $100,000 (or very close) but we do not comfortably get on the other side.
- This makes all the leverage and open interest (and retail euphoria) turn against us.
- After witnessing the Bitcoin price face repeated rejections since then, I am even more confident in this view.
[Earnings Review] Exxon Beat Q3 Earnings Expectations with Higher Chemical Margins and Cost Savings
- Exxon Mobil’s Q3 revenue fell by 0.8% YoY and net profit decreased by 5.1%. Revenue missed estimates by 4.2% but EPS exceeded expectations by 2.3%.
- Exxon Mobil’s Q3 upstream production rose by 24% YoY to 4.6 mboepd, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin and the acquisition of Pioneer.
- Exxon attributed its better-than-expected earnings in bottom-of-cycle conditions to structural cost savings, reduced expenses, high-return investments, and selective divestments.
MSTR = Bitcoin (Garbage) Squared
Buffett has famously called Bitcoin a “mirage” and “rat poison squared”.
If so, then the corporate wrapper masquerading as intelligent leverage of Bitcoin known as MSTR equals that squared — and is perhaps the epitome of late-stage capital cycles expressed
Before I start, let me just say that I completely get the bull thesis behind Bitcoin.
[Earnings Review] Chevron Surpasses Expectations on Higher Output and Improved Efficiency
- Chevron’s Q3 revenue declined 6.3% YoY, while its net profit dropped 31.2%. Yet it beat its revenue and EPS estimates by 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively.
- Chevron achieved a record Q3 output of 3.36 mboepd, up 7% YoY, driven by Permian growth. Full-year production growth is expected near the top of its 4-7% guidance.
- Chevron returned USD 4.7 billion in buybacks and USD 2.9 billion in dividends. Q4 is expected to see USD 1 billion in dividends and USD 4–4.75 billion in buybacks.
Old Republic International Corporation: Will Its Expansion of Specialty Underwriting Bring A Shift In The Competitive Dynamics? – Major Drivers
- Old Republic International Corporation reported its third-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing mixed results influenced by a range of market factors.
- The company’s consolidated pretax operating income declined to $229 million, down from $251 million in the prior year.
- Similarly, the consolidated combined ratio rose to 95% from last year’s 92%, indicating a deterioration in underwriting performance.
The Hanover Insurance Group: How Is The Management Tackling The Financial Strain from Expense Management
- The Hanover Insurance Group’s recent financial results for the third quarter show a complex but generally positive picture of the company’s performance.
- The firm reported an operating income of $3.05 per diluted share, with an operating return on equity of 14.4%.
- This performance reflects improvements driven by strategic initiatives such as enhanced pricing, adjustments in insurance value, and targeted underwriting actions.
CNA Financial Corporation: An Analysis Into Its Growth in Gross Written Premiums & Profitable Segments & Other Major Drivers
- CNA Financial Corporation reported strong financial performance in the third quarter, reflecting robust growth in core income and investment results, as well as strong underwriting performance.
- The core income for the quarter was $293 million, driven by a $73 million increase in net investment income to $626 million pre-tax.
- This surge in investment income was propelled by the positive performance of CNA’s alternatives portfolio and the growth of its fixed-income investments, which benefitted from higher book yields and a larger asset base.
Lincoln National Corporation: Dealing With Strategic Capital Deployment & 4 Other Critical Challenges! – Major Drivers
- Lincoln National Corporation delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2024, showcasing its highest quarterly adjusted operating income in over two years.
- This reflects positive momentum across all its business lines, driven by strategic initiatives focused on capital foundation, operating model optimization, and profitable growth.
- The company has made considerable progress in aligning its operations with these strategic goals, although it acknowledges that the transformations required are part of a multiyear journey.
Is C3.ai Really Turning the Tide? A Deep Dive Into Reddit’s Favorite AI Enterprise!
- C3.ai has been the subject of intense discussions on Reddit and other social platforms, with its stock witnessing significant volatility.
- The buzz was fueled by its deepening partnership with Microsoft, robust pilot growth, and enhanced revenue projections.
- The company recently reported its sixth consecutive quarter of accelerating revenue growth, closing Q1 FY25 with $87.2 million in revenue, up 21% year-over-year.
BBW: Snapping the Store: Ready for Holiday Moments; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $41 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
- We believe, after an outstanding Halloween season, Build-A-Bear pivoted to the Holiday offerings, with the return of Glisten & The Merry Mission “furry friends,” new Sanrio and Stich Holiday-themed looks, the addition of Holiday Mini Beans and key items for the Wicked motion picture release.
- As such, and with gift card sales remaining robust, we believe Build-A-Bear is poised for a very strong Holiday period, especially when the costs of the Glisten movie are not anniversaried.
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