In today’s briefing:
- JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
- SE/Tiktok:Chinese Practitioners’ Discussions About TikTok’s E-Commerce Business in Southeast Asia
- Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Surges On No News; When Will SET50 Be Fixed?
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges
- Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders
JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
- On 8 May I wrote JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase. Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+.
- Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&P500.
- The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while.
SE/Tiktok:Chinese Practitioners’ Discussions About TikTok’s E-Commerce Business in Southeast Asia
- Recently, there has been more discussion about TikTok’s e-commerce business in Southeast Asia on Chinese media and social networks.
- Many service providers and entrepreneurs in China have also been inspired and hope to take the lead in the market with their domestic experience.
- We estimate that TikTok’s 2023 GMV in Southeast Asia will reach 20%~ of Shopee, and this is one of the key reasons why we are bearish to SE.
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Surges On No News; When Will SET50 Be Fixed?
- Delta Thailand surged 20% since our last trade monitor piece. This was without any significant news and the company received another query from the stock exchange as a result.
- Delta Taiwan increased by a higher 22%, thus the extreme valuation mismatch between the two has corrected slightly. Delta Taiwan is still only 0.78x the market cap of Delta Thailand.
- Delta Taiwan last week announced the acquisition of a German company that makes components for vehicles. This will strengthen Delta’s battery management product portfolio and add client relationships.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Highlights Intel & Mediatek; AI Server DRAM Demand; Delta Price Surges
- More Nvidia Takeaways from two conferences the company spoke at — The company highlighted support for Intel’s new Foundry business, Mediatek, and why automakers will absolutely need AI to compete.
- Memory Chip Stocks — Nanya jumps 10% on hopes that AI servers will need 7x the value of DRAM. Micron warns that half of China revenue could be at risk.
- Delta Taiwan and Thailand Surge 20%+, Taiwan outperforms. Delta Taiwan has acquired a German automotive components company to boost its EV powertrain products lead.
Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders
- Q1-4 FY4/2023 results were ahead of revised company guidance and our earnings estimates, highlighting the company’s success in 1) driving demand at both existing and newly acquired customers, and 2) implementing Marketing Technology services that are improving the overall sales mix and driving margin growth.
- On this fundamentally robust basis, the company acquired Net Marketing in April 2023, an advertising agency that will allow access to new customers in which to sell-in profitable Marketing Technology services and replicate its effective model, as well as gain exposure to a more diversified range of market sectors.
- Strong outlook for FY4/2024 – we revise our earnings estimates for FY4/2024 and beyond, reflecting the following: 1) stronger topline growth in Analytics Consulting, 2) a more enhanced trajectory of profitability improvement in the medium term, given the success of Marketing Technology services to date.
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