In today’s briefing:
- What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors
- TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth
- Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely
- Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.
- Huawei Faces Delays in EV Deliveries
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.
- Shift: Market Overreacts to Temporary Dip in Earnings
- MACOM Technology Solutions: Initiation of Coverage – Market Share Takeover! Inside Their Strategy to Conquer Industrial and Defense Sectors – Major Drivers
- monday.com Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Corporate Strategy
- UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be Flat QoQ; Asian Clients Show Optimism.
What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors
- TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.
- Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor’s. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024.
- TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12″ mature technology despite better demand 8″ specialty technology.
TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth
- TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.
- The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.
- TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC’s Buy case even more clear, in our view.
Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely
- The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.
- Based on the latest available data, I expect there to be up to seven index changes in the first quarter of 2024.
Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.
- Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) had reserved Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 Display Driver IC (DDIC) for future shipment since 3Q24F when qualification past.
- Novatek’s outlook is increasing to about 1~5% in 1Q24F, remarked a higher quarter demand than 4Q23.
- It could be a low season in 2Q24F because the rush order shown up around Chinese New Year.
Huawei Faces Delays in EV Deliveries
- Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. is facing trouble in meeting delivery commitments for the first electric vehicle (EV) it has co-developed with auto partner Chery Automobile Co. Ltd., a possible sign of supply chain challenges for the model.
- Some people who placed orders for the Luxeed S7, which is the first electric sedan marketed under Huawei’s Smart Selection business model, recently complained online that they could not receive their cars within the promised timeframe.
- In an effort to mollify the customers, Luxeed announced Monday on social media that it will provide people who placed orders for the Luxeed S7 between Nov. 28 and Jan. 15 with varying cash compensation capped at 10,000 yuan ($1,403), based on their wait time.
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.
- The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.
- TSMC’s sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.
- 2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.
Shift: Market Overreacts to Temporary Dip in Earnings
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 1QFY08/2024 results last week. Revenue and OP increased 29.5% and 0.4% YoY to ¥25.1bn and ¥1.8bn respectively.
- Both revenue and OP were below consensus estimates which triggered a more than 25% drop in Shift’s share price over the last 5 days.
- We think the weaknesses in the company’s 1Q earnings were temporary and we expect the company’s earnings to show recovery going forward
MACOM Technology Solutions: Initiation of Coverage – Market Share Takeover! Inside Their Strategy to Conquer Industrial and Defense Sectors – Major Drivers
- This is our first report on MACOM, a renowned semiconductors manufacturer in the U.S.
- The management of the company is focused on the firm’s performance over the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year of 2023, as well as on prospects for the first fiscal quarter of 2024.
- MACOM reported $150.4 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, with an adjusted EPS of $0.56 per diluted share along with $648 million in revenue and an adjusted EPS of $2.70 for the full fiscal 2023.
monday.com Ltd.: Initiation of Coverage – Corporate Strategy
- This is our first report on Monday.com, a well-known team management platform for organizations and businesses.
- In the third-quarter fiscal year 2023 earnings, Monday.com reported robust growth, considerable margin improvement, and substantial cash generation.
- The company shares that they achieved a record non GAAP operating margin of 13% and free cash flow margin of 34%.
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be Flat QoQ; Asian Clients Show Optimism.
- The United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)’s updated revenue outlook for 1Q24F suggests that it could be relatively flat QoQ..
- UMC’s Asian clients, particularly Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), are experiencing increased demand in 1Q24F.
- On the other hand, European and American clients are more bearish in 1Q24F and have not shown signs of improvement yet.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
