In today’s briefing:
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.
- PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024
- Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.
- CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)
- UMC (2303.TT; UMC US): The Outlook for 4Q24 Is Somewhat Bearish.
- SMIC (981.HK): Surviving Amidst a Prolonged US-China Trade War
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues
- Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales
- Pre-IPO Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.
- We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.
- Among TSMC’s top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.
- Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.
PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024
- PKSHA is an AI company. It was before this year, and got a boost this past spring. The stock price rose 60% in two weeks in February and March 2024.
- Then it fell more than 50%. Back to late 2023 levels. High growth, growing into its valuations. Now moving to TSE Prime this week, TOPIX next month.
- Impact in days of ADV is lower than impact in Real World Float metrics. There are lots of day-traders. This probably has legs.
Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.
- SAMR would draw out review process for too long for a deal to be approved
- Intel faces an existential crisis and even the new Foundry division has issues
- A theoretical deal would have little financial synergy and destroy Qualcomm’s gross margins
CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)
- 12 days ago, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA published his September version of TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (September 2024). His chosen name was CELSYS (3663 JP), a long-time TSE-Prime inclusion bet.
- This week on the 18th, they announced they were going to enter TSE Prime on 25 September. This was a somewhat well-known known. They were interested and had been.
- The stock popped 15% the next day. It’s a small cap, but there is a lot of float.
UMC (2303.TT; UMC US): The Outlook for 4Q24 Is Somewhat Bearish.
- The outlook for 4Q24 appears somewhat bearish at the moment, though it has not been fully defined before the end of October.
- Taiwanese companies such as MediaTek Inc (2454 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) and Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT) continue to be the main drivers of demand for UMC.
- On a positive note, there are warnings against overly relying on chips from Chinese manufacturers due to US sanctions.
SMIC (981.HK): Surviving Amidst a Prolonged US-China Trade War
- SMIC’s revenue might be looking at around US$2bn in 4Q24 and it’s a bit reduction of GM from 3Q24 because of the seasonality at the year end.
- Since around 2019, US was putting an sanction on China, no matter how the argument is true.
- SMIC continued delivering 7nm chips, and even the 5nm chips could be further delivered using a similar method, although the yield rate may be a concern.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues
- Qualcomm Eyes Bold, Friendly Intel Acquisition Amid Intel’s Existential Crisis
- Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last?
- Asustek Soars, Uniquely Making Fresh 52-Week Highs Within PC Makers
Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales
- Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
- Sea (SE US) owned Shopee has partnered with YouTube to drive GMV growth and resist competition with TikTok, which has strengthened its regional presence through its stake in Tokopedia,
- India’s strong shopping appetite was reflected in robust gold purchases in August and high demand for the iPhone 16 launched last week.
Pre-IPO Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Declining customer retention rate indicates that a slowdown in future revenue growth seems inevitable. If revenue growth stagnates, it means Taimei’s business model hasn’t been fully validated by the market.
- Taimei’s IPO on SSE STAR Market was rejected. This means regulatory authorities don’t recognize Taimei’s core technology/performance prospects. Taimei has to take a step back and list on the HKEX.
- Post-Investment valuation reached RMB8.1 billion after Series F financing. However, considering the continuous decline in valuation of its peers, we are concerned about Taimei’s future stock price performance after IPO.
Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.
- Apple (AAPL US) will initially use Novatek’s DDIC (Display Driver IC) for the iPhone 16, but it will soon being replaced largely.
- In 4Q24, there is a possibility of experiencing a decline, with a potential quarter-over-quarter decrease of approximately 5-10%.
- The Chinese panel market continues to be a key battleground, and Novatek must navigate these challenges to remain competitive.
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