In today’s briefing:
- What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)
- Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia
- DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS
- Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data
- HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold
- Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)
What TSMC’s 1Q25 Results Reveal About the Future of Chipmaking in the U.S. (Structural Long)
- TSMC’s Arizona Yield Success Silences Doubts: Management confirmed first U.S. fab has achieved yields comparable to Taiwan, validating global replication model and reinforcing alignment with U.S. clients like Apple, Nvidia.
- U.S. Buildout Anchoring TSMC’s Long-Term Dominance: With 30% of N2 and beyond capacity to be in USA, TSMC building footprint across fabs, packaging, and R&D competitors will struggle to match.
- Margins Resilient, AI Demand Accelerating: 1Q25 beat on AI strength despite smartphone softness and earthquake disruption. 2Q25E revenue guidance of +13% QoQ reflects continued momentum in advanced nodes and HPC.
Weekly Deals Digest (20 Apr) – Shibaura Electronics, Topcon, Jamco, TRYT, Canvest, ENN, Insignia
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) lock-up expiry; DN Solutions (298440 KS) and LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPOS.
- Event-Driven developments: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Topcon Corp (7732 JP), Jamco Corp (7408 JP), TRYT (9164 JP), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
DISCO: Growth Is Slowing Down, the Stock Is Still Expensive
- DISCO Mar-25 results beat Consensus by ~12%. Jun-25 guidance is very weak but DISCO always under-guides egregiously. But it’s weak.
- Consensus has revised down its Jun-25 revenue forecast from 12% YoY growth to 6% but left Sept-Dec-25 unchanged at ~10% YoY growth. The odds are that Consensus is too high.
- The stock is down -39% since end Dec-24 but still trading at 20x EPS in the face of downside risks to Consensus. Not appealing.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at Mid-Range; Short Interest Highs for ASE & IMOS
- TSMC: 16.5% Premium; Short Interest Remains Near Historical Highs for ADR and Local
- ASE: +2.2% Premium; Wait for Closer to Par Before Going Long; Short Interest in Local Shares at Highs
- ChipMOS: +1.1% Premium; Short Interest in Local Shares Hits New Highs
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025
- The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.
- Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.
- Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC U.S. Bet Pays Off; UMC & Faraday Step Up Next; Latest Mobile Shipments Data
- TSMC’s Arizona fab hits Taiwan-level yields, easing replication concerns and reinforcing its global leadership across N2 and advanced packaging.
- AI demand offsets smartphone softness in 1Q25; TSMC guides +13% QoQ revenue for 2Q25 as margins hold firm despite tariff and earthquake headwinds.
- Faraday and UMC results ahead this week — Key readouts on Taiwan’s ASIC, mature node, and design service momentum amid U.S.-China tech decoupling.
HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold
- A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
- The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.
- Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.
Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (IV)
- After the new CEO, Mr. Lip-Pu Tan, took office at the chip giant Intel Corp (INTC US), he initiated a large-scale restructuring of the executive team and organization.
- Intel Corp (INTC US) to sell 51% share of Altera to Silver Lake, a global leader in technology investing. This deal is further to deal with non-performing assets.
- Now, the critical question is, who are the clients of Intel Corp (INTC US) IFS (Intel Foundry Service)?
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
Unlock all research summaries