In today’s briefing:
- MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn
- [Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations
- LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case
- EQD | Hang Seng (HSI Index) – Popular Option Strategies and Top Trades, Soaring with the Iron Condor
- Shenzhen Dobot IPO (2432.HK): Global Offering, The Rising Star of Collaborative Robotics
- Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates
- Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.
MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn
- There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.
- The selling in Broadcom and NVIDIA will be amplified by selling from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US) ETFs.
[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations
- The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
- There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
- We expect a one-way flow of US$1.3bn for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.4%.
LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case
- LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
- In 2020, Macquarie Asset Management bought a 35% stake from LG Corp for KRW950 billion, beating KKR & Co (KKR US), the other shortlisted bidder.
- The bull case rests on an attractive market, improving visibility, strong AI-led growth, below-peer average dependence on related parties, and top-tier profitability.
EQD | Hang Seng (HSI Index) – Popular Option Strategies and Top Trades, Soaring with the Iron Condor
- This Insight analyzes Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) tailor-made option strategies traded between December 9-13, covering strategy analysis, trends, highlights, and volatility context.
- Last week saw high activity with over 5,000 option contracts traded as combinations; the Iron Condor was notably popular, particularly on Monday and Tuesday.
- The highest premium earned was for a January ’25 Iron Condor. The largest trade was a December ’24 Bull Call Spread, reflecting the popularity of bullish and long volatility strategies.
Shenzhen Dobot IPO (2432.HK): Global Offering, The Rising Star of Collaborative Robotics
- Shenzhen Dobot, a CICC-backed robotics unicorn, aims to raise up to HK$830M (~$107M) in the initial public offering in Hong Kong.
- The offering is expected to be between HK$18.80 and HK$20.80, implying a market cap of ~HK$8B or ~$1B at the midpoint of the price range.
- Given Shenzhen Dobot’s long-term growth opportunities and high TAM, they are likely to get a premium valuation, and the company could trade like UBTech Robotics and Doosan Robotics.
Intel. Laser Focus & No More Meaningless Life-Time Value Foundry Deal Updates
- Laser focus, transparency and adoption of a “say do” approach to measuring success are now the order of the day at Intel
- Data Center roadmap not in good shape and if IFS can’t deliver, MJ won’t hesitate to outsource DC products to TSMC alongside existing Client products.
- Gaudi is not a mass market product, Falcon Shores won’t be great either but we will listen, learn, iterate and fail quickly. Watch out NVIDIA !
Tech News This Week: Samsung Multiple Negatives. Intel Facing Reality. TSMC, Mediatek.
- Lots of Jobs eliminated by Large Tech firms. Stable Mediatek-Qualcomm market share in Mobile. Foundry Top-10: 5-4-3nm still booming, Mature nodes still lagging.
- Samsung multiple troubles. HBM3e still not qualified, losing iPhone OLED share, US CHIPS Act subsidies gone, Exynos 2500 delayed, Smartphone forecasts lower
- Intel new CEOs admit they don’t have an AI roadmap – Gaudi 3 failed, next-gen Falcon Shores is a learning opportunity… but 18A process on track (for 2027?).
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread at Short Level; UMC and CHT Short Interest Spikes
- TSMC: 22.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Historical Trading Range
- UMC: +0.2% Premium; Middle of Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises to New High
- CHT: +0.5% Premium; Major Spike in Short Interest for the Local Taiwan Shares
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos
- Apple’s 2nm Power Move with TSMC — Beating Samsung Yet Again
- Why TSMC’s 2nm Will be Huge — Extending Tech Lead vs. Samsung & Major AI/Power Consumption Benefits for Customers
- The Memory Decoupling Trade is Working — Nanya Tech Underperforms SK Hynix
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.
- We anticipate Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) can achieve a 25% growth in 2025.
- It is unsurprising for TSMC to dominate in AI, including the assembly and testing segments.
- Chinese companies are also involved in AI, but there hasn’t been a recent spread as a result of U.S. sanctions.
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