In today’s briefing:
- March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco and a Consumer Goods Stock (Ryohin Keikaku?) To ADD
- SK Hynix. DRAM To The Rescue
- Concerns About A Major Accounting Fraud at Kakao Mobility
- End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 48 Companies in Korea in November 2023
- Kuaishou/KS (1024 HK) Earnings Preview: Unnecessary Concerns About Chairman Change and 3Q23 Results
- Asicland IPO Book Building Results Analysis
- Back in Telefonica
- SAP SE: The Game Changer in Business Transformation! – Major Drivers
- Solid State – Strong organic development in H124
- Texas Instruments: Navigating Through Storms – Their Strategy Revealed! – Major Drivers
March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco and a Consumer Goods Stock (Ryohin Keikaku?) To ADD
- In March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Look for Zozo, Ryohin Keikaku, and Maybe a Socionext Split I suggested Socionext (6526 JP) needed a stock split to get in.
- Today after the close, Socionext reported H1, guided up full-year earnings (still too conservative), raised its div, and announced a 5:1 stock split for Jan1 2024.
- DISCO Corp (6146 JP) is now likely to be a top 75, which leaves the question of which Consumer Goods stock would likely be added.
SK Hynix. DRAM To The Rescue
- SK Hynix reported Q323 revenues of 9.066 trillion won, up 24% QoQ but still down 17% YoY
- Net income was -2.185 trillion won, a 27% improvement on the losses in the prior quarter.
- While DRAM has turned profitable, NAND remains stubbornly loss making and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future
Concerns About A Major Accounting Fraud at Kakao Mobility
- It was reported in numerous local media in Korea that FSS is investigating Kakao Mobility for a potential accounting fraud.
- There are suspicions that Kakao Mobility may have artificially inflated its sales from 2020 to 2023 to enhance the value of the company prior to its IPO listing.
- Given that the regulators are unlikely to make a final decision on this matter until next year, this is likely to be negative on both Kakao Mobility and Kakao Corp.
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 48 Companies in Korea in November 2023
- We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 48 stocks in Korea in November 2023, among which 6 are in KOSPI and 42 are in KOSDAQ.
- These 48 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in November and could underperform relative to the market.
- Among these 48 stocks, top five market cap stocks include Doosan Robotics, Fadu, CanariaBio, Enchem, and Gigavis.
Kuaishou/KS (1024 HK) Earnings Preview: Unnecessary Concerns About Chairman Change and 3Q23 Results
- We believe Mr. Su’s resignation as chairman is not a concern, because Mr. Cheng, the CEO, has been operating the company for two years.
- We believe the 3Q23 YoY growth will be lower, as 2Q23 had a lower comparison base.
- We believe the operating margin can be negative in 3Q23 as Q3 is always a weak season, but operating profit will break even for 2023.
Asicland IPO Book Building Results Analysis
- Asicland completed an excellent IPO book building results. IPO price has been determined at 25,000 won which is 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
- A total of 1,906 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building results. The IPO demand ratio was 490 to 1. Asicland IPO will start trading on 13 November.
- Our base case valuation of Asicland is implied market cap of 434 billion won or target price of 40,571 won per share, which is 62% higher than the IPO price.
Back in Telefonica
- The public holding company SEPI, controlled by the Spanish Treasury, has confirmed to the CNMV that it is studying the possibility of acquiring a stake in Telefonica SA (TEF SM).
- Market speculates with a 5% stake to counterbalance the current 4.9% stake of STC (which could execute an option to acquire another 5% pending Government authorisation).
- At current market prices, it is equivalent to 22.04 trading sessions. Q3 results and Capital Markets Day, the first major strategic update in years, will take place on 8 November.
SAP SE: The Game Changer in Business Transformation! – Major Drivers
- SAP SE delivered a disappointing set of results as the company could not meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
- In Q3, SAP achieved impressive cloud growth.
- The transformative potential of business AI, driven by SAP, is just beginning and promises to reshape the business world.
Solid State – Strong organic development in H124
Solid State has made an excellent start to FY24 with strong continuing organic growth in H124 enhanced by a full period contribution from Custom Power. As a result, management anticipates better-than-expected revenues and PBT for the full year with market consensus rising by c 5% to £155m and £12.5m, respectively.
Texas Instruments: Navigating Through Storms – Their Strategy Revealed! – Major Drivers
- Texas Instruments Incorporated delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.
- Despite these challenges, Texas Instruments maintained its effective capital management, with substantial cash reserves and a resilient balance sheet.
- While the company faced headwinds in revenue and profitability during the quarter, Texas Instruments’ strategic focus on economic resilience and efficient capital management remains evident.