In today’s briefing:
- Socionext Placement – Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record
- Weekly Deals Digest (09 Jul) – Socionext, Tryt, Costa, Musgrave, United Malt, Yachiyo, Metro Pacific
- China Internet Weekly (10Jul2023): Meituan, Alibaba, Ant Group, Tencent
- EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Taking a Breather
- Z Holdings: Yahoo Shopping Falling Further Behind Amazon and Rakuten
- [Bilibili (BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) TP Change]: The Launch Of “Uma Musume” May Face More Delay
Socionext Placement – Valuation More Reasonable but past Secondary Offerings Have a Mixed Record
- Three shareholders of Socionext (6526 JP) aim to raise around US$1.4bn via selling all of their shares in Socionext.
- We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, Socionext Placement – A US$1.8bn Cleanup, Will Have to Give up Some of Its 6x Listing Gains.
- In this note, we talk about the updates and look at the performance of some of the past Japan deals.
Weekly Deals Digest (09 Jul) – Socionext, Tryt, Costa, Musgrave, United Malt, Yachiyo, Metro Pacific
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments – Tryt Inc (9164 JP), Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)‘s Cainiao & Cloud Intelligence Group, J&T Global Express (1936374D CH) IPOs & Socionext (6526 JP)‘s secondary placement.
- Event-Driven developments – Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU), Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU), Yachiyo Industry (7298 JP), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM), Healthway Medical Corp (HMED SP).
China Internet Weekly (10Jul2023): Meituan, Alibaba, Ant Group, Tencent
- Meituan’s food delivery has taken 20% of the Hong Kong market share in its first month’s operations.
- The authorities suggests that they will not further restrict financial apps such as AliPay of Ant Group.
- Tencent’s WeChat Pay charged a money transfer commission, but it exempted university campus the next day.
EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Taking a Breather
- Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
- Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
- We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces
Z Holdings: Yahoo Shopping Falling Further Behind Amazon and Rakuten
- Last year was pivotal for Yahoo Japan: despite record group performance, GTVs in e-commerce actually fell despite continued strong growth in the sector
- In a recent survey, Amazon was the most frequently used e-commerce mall at 49.6%, followed by Rakuten (32%), but Yahoo was far, far below at just 9.8%.
- Yahoo Shopping is now not only less popular with consumers, even merchants are dissatisfied – which is saying something when the service is essentially free.
[Bilibili (BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) TP Change]: The Launch Of “Uma Musume” May Face More Delay
- We cut our revenue estimations for 2H23, mainly due to increased uncertainty surrounding the launch of “Uma Musume.”
- We also lower our estimations for live streaming due to concerns about macro factors. We slightly raise our estimations for BILI’s advertising business…
- …as we anticipate that it will benefit from gaming and e-commerce. Our rev./non-GAAP net income are 1.0% and (6.4%) vs cons in 2Q23. Cut TP to $12.3, maintaining “Sell” rating.
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