In today’s briefing:
- Shinko Electric (6967) Takeover: Changing Break/Gap Risk as Comps Gain
- KRX Introduces Market Orders for Single Stock Futures: Potential Trading Impacts
- Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron
Shinko Electric (6967) Takeover: Changing Break/Gap Risk as Comps Gain
- The JIC Deal for Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) started trading wide when announced five weeks ago. It is still at 9% for perhaps 9 months.
- There is FUD. There are Flows. Just like JSR (4185). Some of that FUD can be explained by “gap risk” on deal break…. or can it? We look at risks.
- 5 weeks ago, there was more positioning risk than fundamental risk. But now main comp Ibiden has outperformed Shinko by 17%. Gap risk is fundamentally lower now. Bump risk exists.
KRX Introduces Market Orders for Single Stock Futures: Potential Trading Impacts
- KRX notified local brokerages last week about allowing market orders for single stock futures (SSF) from April. Currently, 192 SSFs are listed.
- Anticipating short-term effects, heightened frequency and impact of erroneous orders may cause spot market confusion. KRX plans real-time bid disclosure for SSFs to prevent price distortions.
- Nonetheless, we will likely observe SSF price volatility surges. Real-time bid exposure could exacerbate volatility due to premature information revelation. Preemptive position setups considering these factors are advised.
Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron
- MSFT’s new AI features for Windows will need computers with at least 16GB of DRAM to run effectively. MSFT is asking manufacturers for this as a minimum for AI models.
- MSFT announced Copilot Pro for individuals and small businesses last week. The desire to use generative AI and the minimum required DRAM will drive accelerated PC upgrades.
- We note relative strength in 16GB DRAM prices; In Memory space, we continue to see relative value in SK Hynix, however, Nanya has the opportunity to Outperform in Taiwan.