In today’s briefing:
- PB Fintech (Policy Bazaar) Lockup Expiry – US$1bn+, Stock Down 60% but Everyone Is in the Money
- Nexon (3659) | More Buybacks in the Pipeline
- Nexon Q3 In-Line-Ish, Underperformance Achievement Unlocked, Buyback Language Odd
- Intel Vs. TSMC & ADR Monitor: TSMC to Build New High-End Fab In Arizona, Premium Bounce Potential
- Tencent (700 HK) Earning Preview: To Stop Decreasing in 3Q22, and an Upside of 67%
- ARLO: Service in a Tough Market, PT to $8
- XPER: New Launches Reduce Execution Risk
PB Fintech (Policy Bazaar) Lockup Expiry – US$1bn+, Stock Down 60% but Everyone Is in the Money
- In Nov 2021, PB Fintech raised around US$793m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. The lock-up on its pre-IPO shareholder will expire soon.
- The company operates two platforms: Policybazaar operates in India’s online insurance product and service industry; and Paisabazaar platform operates in India’s online credit industry.
- In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.
Nexon (3659) | More Buybacks in the Pipeline
- Nexon is our top pick within the Japanese Gaming Sector
- We see continued strong growth in revenue driven by existing game franchises in addition to new pipeline opportunities
- Nexon is cash rich, debt free and is returning more and more money back to shareholders
Nexon Q3 In-Line-Ish, Underperformance Achievement Unlocked, Buyback Language Odd
- Nexon (3659 JP) reported Q3 earnings and full-year forecasts today. Revenue came in at the bottom end of August guidance, despite the higher-than-forecast USD/yen rate.
- The forecast for full-year is below consensus. This may be seen as disappointing. The stock may fall on this.
- But a buyback announcement and relative valuation suggests time to cover the short.
Intel Vs. TSMC & ADR Monitor: TSMC to Build New High-End Fab In Arizona, Premium Bounce Potential
- TSMC is planning to build a second Arizona fab that could produce its highest-end 3nm chips, according to the WSJ.
- TSMC ADR Premium Impact: The TSMC ADR premium is near zero, and increased U.S. investor enthusiasm could lead to a significant bounce for the premium.
- INTC vs. TSMC Impact: News flow could favor TSMC over Intel over the next few days, at least until a November 14th conference Intel will be attending.
Tencent (700 HK) Earning Preview: To Stop Decreasing in 3Q22, and an Upside of 67%
- We believe Tencent’s revenue will stop declining in 3Q22 and bounce back thereafter.
- We believe FinTech will grow fast, but online game will still be stagnant.
- We expect Tencent will have an upside of 67% for year end 2023.
ARLO: Service in a Tough Market, PT to $8
- ARLO affirmed the slowdown in consumer purchasing that began in September and is expecting the market to remain soft through the middle of 2023
- While ARLO had reduced channel inventory in the second quarter, it had started to ship more product into the channel by the time there was a shift in the market
- Number of paid subscribers continues to rise in Q3 with ARLO adding 195 thousand. ARLO is expecting paid subscriber growth to continue as the channel sells units to the consumer
XPER: New Launches Reduce Execution Risk
- XPER reported third quarter results after becoming a separate operating business at the beginning of October
- XPER is progressing in adding new customers for its different product lines with revenue expected to ramp in subsequent quarters
- The third quarter did not have much in the form of surprises with XPER maintaining its full year guidance.
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