In today’s briefing:
- Oddity Tech: ~34% Downside Risk As Growth Will Slow Down
- Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Benefitting From The Market Demand in ICAPS and Semiconductors! – Major Drivers
- Coherent Corp.: How Is The Management Executing Portfolio Optimization and Operational Execution Improvements! – Major Drivers
- Fabrinet (FN): A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers
- Lumentum Holdings Inc.: Expansion in High-Speed Optical Transceivers & Other Major Drivers
- Paycor HCM Inc.: Their Expanded Enterprise and Embedded Partnerships Is Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
Oddity Tech: ~34% Downside Risk As Growth Will Slow Down
- Oddity Tech, owner of famous global brands IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild, is growing slower than in 2022 and 2023. The overall growth will slow down to ~20% y/y in 2025.
- According to my estimates and SEC filings, private equity firm L Catterton, the largest shareholder, reduced its stake in Oddity Tech to 18.4%, down from ~42% prior to an IPO.
- I see ~34% downside risk in Oddity Tech stock as growth will slow down and the company will launch new brands only in the second half of 2025.
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Benefitting From The Market Demand in ICAPS and Semiconductors! – Major Drivers
- Applied Materials has recorded robust financial results for its third quarter of fiscal year 2024, maintaining momentum with record revenues and solid earnings near the upper end of the guidance range.
- The company is aptly positioned amid extensive secular growth trends reshaping technology, primarily due to increasing demands across key sectors like AI, IoT, and clean energy, which require foundational advancements in semiconductor technology.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Coherent Corp.: How Is The Management Executing Portfolio Optimization and Operational Execution Improvements! – Major Drivers
- Coherent Corp. concluded its fiscal year 2024 with financial results reflecting a positive trajectory, showing a 9% sequential and year-over-year revenue growth primarily driven by robust demand in datacom transceivers for AI data-centric deployments.
- This was further accentuated by Non-GAAP gross margin expansion of 145 basis points compared to the previous quarter, underpinned by resolution of prior transitory issues and a substantial growth in Non-GAAP EPS by 16% sequentially and almost 50% year-over-year.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Fabrinet (FN): A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers
- Fabrinet concluded the fiscal year 2024 on a strong note with record revenue and earnings per share, reflecting robust execution across its business segments.
- For the fourth quarter, the company posted revenue of $753 million, exceeding its guidance and marking a 15% year-over-year increase and a 3% increase sequentially.
- Non GAAP earnings per share for the quarter came in at $2.41, also surpassing the projected range.
Lumentum Holdings Inc.: Expansion in High-Speed Optical Transceivers & Other Major Drivers
- Lumentum Holdings, a provider of optical and photonic solutions, reported mixed performance in its fourth quarter fiscal year 2024 results.
- The company experienced a decrease in both the Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech segments but made significant progress in expanding its customer base and advancing its technology for future growth, particularly in high-speed optical transceivers and datacom components.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Paycor HCM Inc.: Their Expanded Enterprise and Embedded Partnerships Is Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
- Paycor’s fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, which ended on June 30, 2024, reflects a company strategically navigating its growth amidst an evolving market landscape.
- With an 18% revenue growth for the quarter and a 19% increase for the fiscal year, Paycor appears to have successfully executed its strategic initiatives.
- The company managed to increase the average number of employees on its platform by 9% and expanded the amount earned per employee per month by 6%, signaling efficient scaling and value addition.
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