In today’s briefing:
- BIG Nippon Electric Glass (5214) Buyback, Possibly Offset by Cross-Holder Selling
- SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close
- PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years
- BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates
- LS Materials IPO Valuation Analysis
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Key Taiwan Results; Heavyweights Samsung, AMD, Qualcomm Internationally
- [Week 9] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition – Part II
- Travelsky (696): Cheaper Now
- PI: Headwinds Persist
- Wrkr Limited – Readying for Significant Customer Uplift
BIG Nippon Electric Glass (5214) Buyback, Possibly Offset by Cross-Holder Selling
- Nippon Electric Glass (5214 JP) is going through a rebuilding year. Lots of restructuring expenses and I expect there will be more.
- The company today announced the outline of its next Mid-Term Management Plan for the 5 years to 2028. It will announce details in early Feb 2024 with results.
- In that, there is ¥50bn of buybacks through Dec2026, of which ¥20bn will be made in the next 4mos. That is about 11-14% of ADV assuming the price jumps.
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close
- Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB).
- There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.
- Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.
PC Monitor: Inventories Healthy & Intel Expects Over 100 Million AI PCs In Two Years
- Intel’s results last week beat expectations by a wide margin, with margins recovering better than expected by the Street and guided to keep improving through 4Q23E.
- New Meteor Lake chips for PCs, branded as ‘Intel Core Ultra’ will officially launch December 14th and are expected to drive demand for new AI-optimized PCs in 2024E.
- Intel said that the PC industry completed its inventory digestion in 1H23, drove sequential demand growth in 3Q23, and this is expected to continue into 4Q23E.
BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates
- TSMC’s manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
- ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
- Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.
LS Materials IPO Valuation Analysis
- Our base case valuation of LS Materials IPO is target price of 6,628 won per share, which is 21% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
- We estimate LS Materials to generate sales of 155.5 billion won (down 4% YoY) and 197.2 billion won (up 26.8% YoY) in 2024.
- LS Materials is one of the largest players globally in the large-size ultracapacitors, which stabilize power supply and are used to replace and supplement primary batteries and lithium-ion batteries.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Key Taiwan Results; Heavyweights Samsung, AMD, Qualcomm Internationally
- Key Results This Week: Delta, Elan, ChipMOS, Nuvoton, AU Optronics in Taiwan… Plus Samsung, AMD, and Qualcomm.
- Positive signs for the PC & mobile space have come from recent Intel, UMC, Mediatek results.
- Top Losers: Macronix Slumps on Weak Results and Outlook, Hon Hai Slumps on China Tax & Land Probe
[Week 9] Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition – Part II
- Our earnings coverage continues for the second edition and is expected to continue for one more week.
- At the bottom, we provide a consolidated view of all earnings tracked so far (Bullish / Bearish) and would be happy to engage on any of them.
- We also highlight the earnings of some of the global companies that have significant operations or growth in India.
Travelsky (696): Cheaper Now
- Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) share price was unjustly sold off due to flows rather than operational performance.
- The key business is processing flights for domestic tourism, with a lesser correlation to geopolitical issues.
- Due to the strong earnings growth, PER is adjusted from 60x to 25x.
PI: Headwinds Persist
- Impinj reported third quarter results affirming the slowdown in sales volume for endpoint ICs with hopes the current softness comes to an end by the first quarter of 2024
- Concurrent with the decline in demand is the increase in endpoint IC availability from competitors
- We continue to believe the near-term fundamentals are not as strong as the stock depicts and the business is vulnerable to further headwinds, especially related to endpoint IC pricing.
Wrkr Limited – Readying for Significant Customer Uplift
- Wrkr Ltd (ASX: WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian super annuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
- The company has released its Q1 FY24 activities report, with key highlights including 43% growth in cash receipts on the previous corresponding period (pcp), 42% growth in revenue, and a cash burn runway of eight quarters before any R&D tax rebates or new customer transactions are considered.
- Revenue has been boosted by development and planning work for major customers ART and Link Group respectively.
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