In today’s briefing:
- The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour
- Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!
- Micron’s Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Ahead; Taiwan AI Plays Slump But Still Beat Nvidia Last 3 Months
- Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs
The Biggish Sep 2023 “Wednesday-Thursday Trade” With Added Monday/Friday Flavour
- Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
- But there may be ¥800bn+ to buy on one day into the close later this month (+ another ¥200-300bn on two other days). Then a ¥500bn sell two days later.
- Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. In Sep, not so much. This year there are Extra Special Flows.
Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!
- This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
- The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
- We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw HKD 14.5bn+ of net buying. That makes ten weeks of net inflows.
Micron’s Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI
- Micron’s earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.
- Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our ‘reversion catch up’ trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.
- SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Ahead; Taiwan AI Plays Slump But Still Beat Nvidia Last 3 Months
- Micron results this week. The company is likely to call a trough for memory prices and highlight its development of the next most advanced type of HBM DRAM for AI.
- Taiwan’s market fell, with previous AI-rally beneficiaries continuing to be some of the top losers. Interestingly, Taiwan AI-names outperformed Nvidia over the last three months.
- Intel’s Innovation Conference wrapped up last week, with its new Meteor Lake PC CPUs launching Dec 14th, which is positive for the PC supply chain. Intel shares fell slightly however.
Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs
- First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.
- BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.
- BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.
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