In today’s briefing:
- StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over – More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI
- KKR ¥8,800 Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Details and Arb Grid
- Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility
- Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY8,800
- TSMC’s Expansion Strategy: New Plants and Rising AI Demand Shape Future Growth
- Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) May NOT Be the Next NVIDIA!
- Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Aug-2024): Acer subs drive growth, boost resilience amid PC changes.
- KYEC (2449.TT): In 2Q24, Revenue Exceeded Our Expectations, and GM, OPM, and EPS Surprised Us.
- Broadleaf (3673 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over – More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI
- Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) is down 19% in the past month. But still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)‘s market cap. Still unsustainable.
- Preceding my comments on the Barito complex AND the Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) / KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Holdco, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation (sub/parent) >20%.
KKR ¥8,800 Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Details and Arb Grid
- KKR has announced its previously leaked takeover of Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP). Two activists with 30+% between them have agreed to tender at ¥8,800.
- Given what the founder, crossholders, and other arbs own, this gets done easily. Congrats on the win to the activists.
- We will see more activism and more pressure on under-earning companies to go private to clean themselves up outside the public eye. Big opportunities for years.
Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility
- Amidst the volatility in the Japanese yen, companies like Money Forward, with a strong domestic revenue base and minimal exposure to forex risk, present an attractive investment opportunity.
- Despite broader market uncertainties, Money Forward continues to demonstrate impressive growth, with its corporate ARR surging by 38% YoY in the most recent quarter, signaling sustained momentum.
- The recent agreement to divest 49% of its non-core B2C segment, Money Forward ME, underscores the significant undervaluation of its core operations.
Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY8,800
- Following media reports, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from KKR at JPY8,800 per share, a 1.0% discount to the last close price of JPY8,890 (8 August).
- The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, Vietnam and possibly Belgium. The offer is anticipated to commence in mid-September.
- The offer is a knockout bid and the culmination of an auction process. The board’s recommendation and the irrevocables from activist shareholders ensure this deal is done.
TSMC’s Expansion Strategy: New Plants and Rising AI Demand Shape Future Growth
- TSMC’s new plants will increase its production capacity for 3-nm chips, aiming to triple output this year. Global market share stands at 18%.
- Major tech companies’ increased AI investments are driving demand for TSMC’s advanced semiconductors, crucial for AI and machine learning applications.
- TSMC’s automotive solutions output is expected to grow at a 50% CAGR through 2024, addressing global chip shortages in the auto industry.
Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
- There could be up to three M&A-related intra-review changes in the next few weeks.
- Apart from that, there could be two changes for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index during the September 2024 review.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) May NOT Be the Next NVIDIA!
- Super Micro Computer, Inc. has garnered attention with its strong financial performance in Q4 2024, reporting record revenue growth driven by its AI server and data center infrastructure solutions.
- The company’s transition to direct liquid cooling (DLC) technology and AI-focused strategies have positioned it as a key player in the rapidly evolving technology landscape.
- With a 143% year-over-year revenue growth to $5.31 billion, SMCI has demonstrated its capability to scale and meet the increasing demand for AI infrastructure.
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Aug-2024): Acer subs drive growth, boost resilience amid PC changes.
- Acer’s subsidiaries are driving growth, providing resilience and optimism in the face of shifts in the PC market.
- China’s smartphone industry is experiencing a boom in the second quarter of 2024, indicating strong potential for growth.
- A potential US ban on Chinese vehicle technology could deepen the technology rift with lasting effects, impacting various industries.
KYEC (2449.TT): In 2Q24, Revenue Exceeded Our Expectations, and GM, OPM, and EPS Surprised Us.
- King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)‘s 2Q24 revenue/GM/OPM/EPS were NTD$9,035mn/40.5%/29.8%/NTD$2.2.
- The main reasons of revenue growth shall be the AI aspects, especially the contribution from NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US).
- For the upcoming 3Q24, we are keeping a relatively strong confidence of 5-10% growth rate for KYEC.
Broadleaf (3673 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
- Revenue for 1H FY12/24 was JPY8.4bn, with an operating loss of JPY44mn and pre-tax profit of JPY16mn.
- Cloud services revenue increased 63.4% YoY, while packaged systems revenue decreased 6.2% YoY.
- Full-year FY12/24 earnings forecast revised: pre-tax profit to JPY100mn and profit attributable to owners of the parent to JPY90mn.
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