In today’s briefing:
- Latest Scoop on President Yoon’s Impeachment Motion and How to Play It in the Market
- Kioxia IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation
- Robosense Technology, Driving in the Fast Lane While No One Is Looking
- Understanding Kioxia, A Worthwhile IPO?
- Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Dec-2024): AI sovereignty.
- Intel’s Next CEO Will Have To Deal With An Unholy Mess. But Who Will It Be?
- Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: PHIP and Valuation Updates, High Valuations and A Higher TAM
- Geniee (6562 JP) – Maintaining a Growth Profile
- Airtasker Ltd – Upping the media capital ante
- What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 4 December (ASM International | Black Friday update)
Latest Scoop on President Yoon’s Impeachment Motion and How to Play It in the Market
- The key point is Saturday—watch if eight ruling party lawmakers defect. Hahn Dong-hoon may push for an early election, with 15 loyalists backing him, so it’s definitely possible.
- I’d bet on the ruling party leader pivoting, accepting impeachment, and pushing for an early election. Time to scout beneficiaries and set up an aggressive trading play.
- Short-Term, I’m eyeing Kakao affiliates, under-the-radar IT stocks, and those likely to benefit from corporate governance changes. Low birth rate-related sectors are also set for strong upside.
Kioxia IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation
- Kioxia has announced the terms for its IPO, and plans to raise $730m through issuing new shares as well as offer by existing shareholders, at a market capitalisation of $819bn.
- Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) ‘s earnings have been volatile and margins have trailed compared to peers Micron and SK Hynix. Earnings are approaching a new peak.
- Kioxia’s implied valuation multiples are at a deep discount to peer multiples, suggesting there is significant upside to the indicative IPO price range.
Robosense Technology, Driving in the Fast Lane While No One Is Looking
- Robosense Technology (2498 HK) has seen its sales of LiDAR solution systems grow substantially as it achieved the ability to mass produce for its customers.
- The company integrates proprietary hardware and software, creating a barrier to entry for most LiDAR competitors, who produce only the hardware system.
- Robosense announced a strong set of results for 3Q24 and expects to be profitable at some time in 2025. The company has been actively buying back shares.
Understanding Kioxia, A Worthwhile IPO?
- Kioxia is planning to offer its IPO on 18 December 2024. This Insight profiles Kioxia and its market.
- NAND flash, Kioxia’s product, is a commodity, and that results in dramatic price, revenue, and margin swings.
- Kioxia is in a joint venture that provides excellent scale economies which are offset by a supply agreement that amplifies troubles caused by oversupplies
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Dec-2024): AI sovereignty.
- Artificial intelligence granted sovereign status, with autonomous decision-making capabilities, gaining power and authority.
- Fujifilm Taiwan expands by building a new plant in Hsinchu, while ASM grows in proximity to TSMC and suppliers in Taiwan.
- China issues a warning to Biden and Trump with an export ban on gallium and germanium, impacting US industries; Marvell sees strong 3Q24 results boosted by high demand for AI silicon.
Intel’s Next CEO Will Have To Deal With An Unholy Mess. But Who Will It Be?
- Gelsinger’s IDM 2.0 strategy will be up for debate by Intel’s BoD. Most likely it will be largely scaled back
- The new CEO’s options will be limited by the legal agreements in place with Brookfield & Apollo, along with the restrictions imposed by the US DOC
- Possible CEO candidates are the current Globalfoundries CEO, Tom Caulfield, former Intel board member Lip-Bu Tan and former Intel executive Stacy Smith, who recently joined Intel’s BoD
Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology IPO: PHIP and Valuation Updates, High Valuations and A Higher TAM
- Shenzhen Yuejiang Technology, more commonly known as just Dobot, updated its PHIP and plans to raise fresh capital for technology development for intelligent cobots.
- The company did not disclose the proposed size and price range for the offering. Guotai Junan international and ABC International are leading the IPO.
- I believe cobot industry can grow faster than third-party forecasts while the integration of AI into cobots will drive the development of smart cobots.
Geniee (6562 JP) – Maintaining a Growth Profile
- Geniee demonstrated high double-digit growth in sales (+36.3% YoY) and reported OP (+77.2% YoY) for Q1-2 FY3/25 results.
- The acquisitive impact from the consolidation of Socialwire (3929) in July 2024 was positive, with a one-time ¥0.07bn gain related to disposing of a shared office operation.
- Other income also benefitted by ¥0.32bn from the transition of JAPAN AI Co. from a consolidated subsidiary to an affiliate company due to capital-raising activities.
Airtasker Ltd – Upping the media capital ante
- RaaS has published an update report on online marketplace Airtasker (ASX:ART) following its recent announcement of three additional media deals in the UK and US.
- Additional deals in the US have been announced with Sinclair Media ($9.2m) and Mercurius Media ($9.2m), together with an extension of the Chanel 4 deal in the UK ($7.8m).
- This brings the total of recent media deals to $51.6m which is likely to supercharge international growth in the medium term.
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 4 December (ASM International | Black Friday update)
- In this edition: • ASM International | reiterates 4Q24 and FY25 guidance despite new export regulations • Black Friday update | a strong start of the week with a somewhat disappointing finish
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