In today’s briefing:
- NTT Data’s ¥1,940/Share Deal For Jastec (9717) – Not Enough But Probably Enough
- KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Hanmi Semiconductor (042700 KS) Flying High
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, ASE Spreads Bounce Back to Historically Extreme Highs
- Nintendo Co Ltd (NTDOY) – Sunday, Jan 7, 2024
- UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Some Rush Orders Coming in and 2Q24F Could Post Positive QoQ.
- Payment Companies – Potential IPOs, Select Companies Being Taken Private and Sector Overview
NTT Data’s ¥1,940/Share Deal For Jastec (9717) – Not Enough But Probably Enough
- NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) on Friday announced a Tender Offer to take over small custom software developer and system integrator Jastec Co Ltd (9717 JP).
- It’s at a premium. But for a growing company ahead of “The 2025 Problem” where synergies are expected, you’d want to get a premium vs where comps trade. You don’t.
- But this gets to near 50% just from friendlies. Someone who wanted to interfere would have to be publicly noisy. I expect this gets done.
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Hanmi Semiconductor (042700 KS) Flying High
- Around 85% of the way through the review period, we see four changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
- The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.4-8 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 1-13 days of ADV.
- Hanmi Semiconductor (042700 KS) is up 72% in the last two months following its appearance on the list of potential Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) inclusions in June.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, ASE Spreads Bounce Back to Historically Extreme Highs
- TSMC: +16.2%, Bounced Back to Historically Extreme Level, Consider Short
- UMC: -0.3% Discount, Flipped to Positive and Now Negative Again
- ASE: +15.3% Premium; Bounced Back to Extreme Highs, Short the Spread
Nintendo Co Ltd (NTDOY) – Sunday, Jan 7, 2024
- AAOI recommends investing in Nintendo ahead of the launch of the Switch 2 console cycle in mid to late 2024
- Analyst sees potential for multiple expansion, margin improvement, and continued monetization of intellectual property through theme parks and movies
- Bullish on Nintendo’s stock in absolute terms and relative to other companies in the video game and media sectors, predicting significant gains based on past launch cycles.
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UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Some Rush Orders Coming in and 2Q24F Could Post Positive QoQ.
- United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)‘s 2Q24F outlook is experiencing a slight upward now, possibly indicating a positive QoQ.
- UMC’s notable contributors are showing a mixed outlook, and Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) could be the most influencer.
- Attention should be paid to the 3Q24F outlook for any potential changes and a shift from a bearish view could positively impact the outlook, potentially signaling the end of downturn.
Payment Companies – Potential IPOs, Select Companies Being Taken Private and Sector Overview
- We explore Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO prospects and valuations based on recent share transactions; Nuvei and Cielo are close to being taken private, with Worldpay now controlled by private equity
- Nuvei and Worldpay both grew by acquisition but failed to deliver on the market’s expected returns, in our view, ending up under PE ownership; is Nexi a potential PE target?
- We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and PayPal as buys, replacing Cielo with new peer group addition Shift4; we keep our sell rating on Affirm