In today’s briefing:
- Intel Cancels 20A. Now Why Would They Go & Do That?
- AMD Acquires ZT Systems for $4.9B, Challenging NVIDIA in the AI Infrastructure Market
- Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside
- Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress
- Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%
- Vanguard (5347.TT): The Outlook of 4Q24 Seems a Bit Softer.
- Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Sep-2024): Global semiconductor sales up in July; Americas surge 40%
- Bill Holdings Inc.: Expanded Product Portfolio & Other Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts
- Marvell Technology Group: Expansion in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Center Solutions & Focus on Custom Silicon Growth! – Major Drivers
- iQIYI Inc.: Can The Expansion into Overseas Markets Be A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers
Intel Cancels 20A. Now Why Would They Go & Do That?
- Intel’s CFO says the company is going to “kind of skip over productizing 20A”
- This decision removes an important, looming milestone from Intel’s roadmap, i.e. the ramp of Arrow Lake later this year
- The decision to outsource all Arrow Lake tiles, apart from final packaging, strongly suggests that Intel 3 and Intel 18A are not capable of a cost-competitive volume ramp
AMD Acquires ZT Systems for $4.9B, Challenging NVIDIA in the AI Infrastructure Market
- The acquisition positions AMD to capitalize on the booming AI infrastructure market, which is expected to grow to $372.9 billion by 2029, leveraging ZT Systems’ hyperscale computing and integration capabilities.
- AMD will use ZT Systems’ experience in AI infrastructure deployment for cloud providers like AWS and Azure, helping it compete with NVIDIA’s 70% market share and Intel’s data center push.
- Analysts expect the acquisition to be financially accretive by 2025, with ZT Systems enabling AMD to provide comprehensive AI solutions, boosting its presence in the cloud, AI, and enterprise sectors.
Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside
- The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
- We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&P 500, Japan’s TOPIX, and Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 to “roll over near current or marginally higher levels.”
- Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.
Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress
- 1H24 results was above expectation and showing good signs of cost control and topline recovery. We expect the momentum to continue.
- Air traffic in China continues to grow strongly, with domestic travel leading the way. International traffic is picking up momentum, but still 23% gap to pre-Covid’s numbers.
- Revised fair value of HKD11.10 (+18% UPSIDE) is based on 2025 PE 12.5x (1SD below mean).
Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%
- Revenue’s surged 47% YoY, driven by a 200% increase in infrastructure software revenue. Despite strong revenue growth, the company posted a $1.88B net loss due to a $4.5B tax provision
- AI revenue is projected to grow by 10% sequentially in Q4, surpassing $3.5B, and is expected to total $12B for fiscal 2024. VMware annualized booking value increased 32% QoQ.
- Despite beating Q3 estimates, Broadcom’s Q4 revenue guidance of $14B fell short of the $14.04B expected by analysts. This led to a 7% drop in shares post-earnings.
Vanguard (5347.TT): The Outlook of 4Q24 Seems a Bit Softer.
- The 4Q24 is slightly on the downside, and we are currently adopting a somewhat conservative approach.
- Visibility extends for no more than 3 months, and any increase in demand is primarily driven by urgent orders.
- As for the upcoming 12″ Fab, which is in collaboration with Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US), it has commenced local recruitment efforts in Singapore.
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Sep-2024): Global semiconductor sales up in July; Americas surge 40%
- Global semiconductor sales saw a 40% rise in Americas in July, with Acer hitting record highs in India and Indonesia.
- Foxconn is reviewing a European semiconductor plant and investing in technology, as SEMI CEO calls for 10-20 wafer fabs in India.
- Semiconductor giants reveal sustainability plans at Semicon Taiwan 2024, while ASE forms SiPhIA consortium for advancements in silicon photonics. UK auto industry embraces net-zero amid EV revolution, and China’s leading AI chip unicorn faces revenue decline despite sector growth.
Bill Holdings Inc.: Expanded Product Portfolio & Other Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts
- BILL’s fiscal Q4 2024 earnings release and conference call signified a noteworthy closure to its fiscal year, presenting both accomplishments and areas for improvement.
- The company, with its leadership featuring CEO Rene Lacerte and CFO John Rettig, outlined a series of strategic initiatives and financial outcomes that underline its standing in the financial operations sector, particularly for small to midsized businesses (SMBs).
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Marvell Technology Group: Expansion in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Center Solutions & Focus on Custom Silicon Growth! – Major Drivers
- Marvell Technology, Inc.’s Q1 2025 earnings report reflects a strong start to the fiscal year with revenue of $1.16 billion, surpassing the midpoint of guidance.
- The overachievement was largely driven by higher-than predicted results from the company’s data center operations, which reported $816 million in revenue for the quarter.
- The company anticipates such performance and growth to continue throughout the fiscal year, especially in light of initial shipments of their custom AI compute programs.
iQIYI Inc.: Can The Expansion into Overseas Markets Be A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers
- iQIYI recently divulged its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2024, revealing several intriguing aspects about its current business trajectory.
- This analysis aims to distill the substantial information provided during the earnings call and form an even-handed view on iQIYI’s performance and future prospects.
- iQIYI remains a significant player in the long-form video sector in China, holding a competitive edge in the drama and film categories.
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