In today’s briefing:
- Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles
- TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion
- Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC
- PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
- Cuscal IPO – Peers Have Traded Up, Decent Margin of Safety from Here
- Pony AI IPO – Autonomous Valuation
Fuji Soft (9749): KKR To Launch at ¥9,451, Fuji Soft REJECTS Bain’s Bid – Governance in Shambles
- On Friday 15 November, KKR announced it would launch KKR Tender2 to buy the rest of FujiSoft not purchased in KKR Tender1. Their new price is ¥1 higher than Bain’s.
- Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) announced (J) it supported the KKR2 Tender and rejected the Bain TOB Proposal. KKR1 shareholders are “made whole” at ¥9,451/share. Minimum is 53.22%.
- The document, however, is a Governance Disaster – an absolute shambles, effectively gaslighting investors at every turn. And now investors can see it was problematic from the start.
TSMC Has Increased Its Dividend. Again. It Will Keep Increasing.
- TSMC cash dividend has increased by 65% in 2 years or NT$2.75 in 4Q22 to NT$4.50 in 3Q24. It will keep increasing.
- TSMC is spinning cash. 2nm-16A could increase Capex intensity but still we estimate that quarterly dividend can increase to NT$5.50 in 2025 and NT$6.00 in 2026.
- Consensus forecasts similar EPS growth for TSMC and ASML: 30% in 2025, 20% in 2026. TSMC is 50% cheaper than ASML. 2025 PEx: TSMC 18x and ASML 28x.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Weakness Could Open TSMC Long Level; ASE Short Interest Keeps Surging
- TSMC: +16.7% Premium; Further Market Weakness Could Soon Open Up Good Long Level
- UMC: -2.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
- ASE: -0.1% Discount; Premium Completely Broken Down & Local Short Interest Continues to Surge
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Firms to Surge U.S. Investment Due to Trump?; AI PCs & Memory Expansion
- Hon Hai, Pegatron, and Quanta Gear Up for Potential U.S. Investment Surge Amid Trump Policy Speculation
- PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
- Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies
Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC
- TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.
- Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.
- Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214.
PC Monitor: Asustek & Lenovo Signal Strong PC Growth, AI PC Expansion in Process
- Asustek Guides for 20%+ YoY PC Revenue Growth in 4Q24E; Lenovo Delivers 17% YoY PC Revenue Growth in CY3Q24
- AI PCs: A Multi-Year Upgrade Cycle with Rising Average Selling Prices; AI PCs 80% of the PC Market by 2027E
- Maintain Structural Long View for AI PC Up-Cycle; Asustek, Acer, & Lenovo Well-Positioned Through 2025E
Cuscal IPO – Peers Have Traded Up, Decent Margin of Safety from Here
- Cuscal (1229Z AU) is looking to raise A$337m (US$218m) in its Australia IPO.
- Cuscal is an authorized deposit-taking institution (ADI) in Australia that primarily provides financial infrastructure and payment services in Australia.
- In this note, we look at the updates since our last look-through and share our thoughts on valuation.
Pony AI IPO – Autonomous Valuation
- Pony AI (PONY US), an autonomous mobility solutions provider, is looking to raise up to US$195m in its US IPO.
- As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.
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