In today’s briefing:
- Blibli IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion
- Blibli IPO: The Bull Case
- HYBE: Korean Govt Mandates BTS Members to Enlist in Military – 50% Further Downside Risk Ahead
- Money Forward – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Revenue Is Growing but so Are EBITDA Losses
- Money Forward (3994) | Major Improvement in Corporate Client Acquisition
- Money Forward: Top Line Beats Consensus but Losses Widen Further
- Why Roblox’s September Metrics Are Even Better Than They Appear
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Tech Day Today, Apple Drops China Supplier; Shows Severity of New Rules
- Bitcoin Volatility Matches Nasdaq
Blibli IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion
- Blibli (1437710D IJ) is offering 17.77bn shares in its IPO at a price range of IDR 410-460/share. That could raise up to US$530m and value the company up to US$3.64bn.
- The stock will not get Fast Entry to the IDX30, LQ45, MSCI and FTSE indices, so no near-term support from passive buying.
- The stock could make it into the MSCI Small Cap Index in February and the FTSE All-World/All-Cap Index in June. Earliest inclusion in IDX30/IDX80/LQ45 indices could be in July.
Blibli IPO: The Bull Case
- Blibli (1437710D IJ), a leading Indonesian e-commerce player, has launched an IDR8.2 trillion (US$530 million) Indonesian IPO. Bookbuilding is from 17 to 24 October.
- According to Frost & Sullivan, Blibli.com was No. 1 in the fresh food category and 1P consumer electronics in the B2C omnichannel among e-commerce players in Indonesia in 2021.
- The key elements of the bull case rest on a large and growing addressable market, strong ecosystem, high order values, rising cohort spending and fast-paced growth.
HYBE: Korean Govt Mandates BTS Members to Enlist in Military – 50% Further Downside Risk Ahead
- On 17 October, the Korean government made a final official decision to have the BTS members serve in the mandatory military service.
- We believe this will have a major negative impact on the sales and profits of HYBE in the next several years.
- As a result of the Korean government formalizing the BTS members to enlist in the military, we believe that HYBE’s share price could fall more than 50% from current levels.
Money Forward – Q3 22 Results Reaction: Revenue Is Growing but so Are EBITDA Losses
- Revenue growth rebounded in Q4 and was the best in six quarters as corporate sales accelerated, particularly in the medium business segment
- But EBITDA losses accelerated and whilst management says this is the peak quarter, this is the first time since 2019 that EBITDA excluding advertising costs was negative
- Guidance for Q4 is mixed with a conservative revenue target and a only a modest reduction in EBITDA losses
Money Forward (3994) | Major Improvement in Corporate Client Acquisition
- Money Forward Q3 sales rose +42% YoY to Y5.5bn driven by corporate ARR (+54% YoY)
- Net sales, ARR, and EBITDA loss of -Y1.9bn all in line with company guidance
- Growth investment starting to pay off as Corporate Client acquisition rate DOUBLES
Money Forward: Top Line Beats Consensus but Losses Widen Further
- Money Forward reported 3QFY11/2022 results. Revenue increased 42.2% YoY to JPY5.45bn (vs consensus JPY5.40bn) while adjusted op.losses further widened to JPY2.5bn vs JPY449m in the same period a year ago.
- Though top line growth has resumed following a slowdown in 2QFY11/2022, MF’s margins have further worsened with increased investment in advertising, staff and subsidies.
- MF’s share price fell almost 8% following earnings announcement as investors are concerned over deteriorating profitability.
Why Roblox’s September Metrics Are Even Better Than They Appear
- Roblox is proving out management’s assertion that bookings growth would reaccelerate in the back half of the year.
- The company extended its average user life from 25 to 28 months. Signal of falling churn.
- Roblox usage continues to dwarf all other social media; DAUs spend 2.5x more time per day than TikTok or Instagram users.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai Tech Day Today, Apple Drops China Supplier; Shows Severity of New Rules
- Major milestones for Hon Hai’s EV platform could be unveiled at today’s Hon Hai Tech Day.
- Apple’s dropping of a key China supplier shows how international players may want to just avoid even non-restricted products from China.
- Senior semiconductor executives across the industry are halting work for China-based firms, including some leading Chinese execs.
Bitcoin Volatility Matches Nasdaq
- Price Movements: Bitcoin falls to its lowest level since 2020 following hot U.S. inflation print but stages modest recovery after.
- Market Liquidity: Coinbase regains dominant BTC-USD market share.
- Derivatives: Open interest on Binance plummets following dramatic price moves.
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