In today’s briefing:
- Astera Labs IPO Valuation Analysis
- Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! – Key Growth Catalysts
- Cyber Security Cloud (4493): Full-Year FY12/23 Update
- Nihon Denkei (9908): Q3 FY03/24 Update
- Bumble Inc.: Addressing Existing Product Limitations Through AI & Other Innovations! – Key Drivers
- Oracle Corporation: Will The Expansion In Application Subscription Revenues Last? – Major Drivers
- Peloton Interactive: What Is The Impact Of The Recent TikTok & Lululemon Partnerships – Major Drivers
- Itron Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Major Drivers
- [Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$22) Rating Change]: Market Share Gain Ahead of Purported Recovery
Astera Labs IPO Valuation Analysis
- Our base case valuation is market cap of US$5.4 billion or target price of US$35.9 per share, which is 20% higher than high end of the IPO price range (US$30).
- We estimate Astera Labs (ALAB US) to generate revenue of $221.3 million (up 91.1% YoY) in 2024 and $304.5 million (up 37.5% YoY) in 2025.
- Many investors are willing to take extra risk to invest in companies such as Astera Labs that could generate strong sales growth amid rush to aggressively expand AI capabilities.
Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.
- We anticipate that the guidance upper limit for 1Q24F results may be reached.
- The outlook is expected to see approximately a 10% QoQ increase in 2Q24F.
- The recent stock market performance may reflect enthusiasm for Vanguard, despite temporary disregard for the name.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! – Key Growth Catalysts
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)’s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its industry-leading 3-nanometer technology.
- The gross margin, however decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 53% primarily due to margin dilution from 3-nanometer technology.
- The operating margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.6%, slightly ahead of the company’s guidance.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Cyber Security Cloud (4493): Full-Year FY12/23 Update
- Cyber Security Cloud Inc (4493 JP) provides customers with subscription services based on software it develops in-house.
- In FY12/23, CSC reported revenue of JPY3.1bn, operating profit of JPY550mn, recurring profit of JPY560mn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY427mn.
- Cyber Security Cloud, Inc. announced the acquisition of its own shares
Nihon Denkei (9908): Q3 FY03/24 Update
- Established in 1950, Nihon Denkei (9908 JP) is an independent specialized trading company with a leading domestic share, by sales, in electronic measuring instruments (source: Nihon Denkei).
- In FY03/23, sales were JPY104.8bn (+14.1% YoY), operating profit was JPY3.7bn (+40.4% YoY), and recurring profit was JPY4.0bn (+31.9% YoY).
- On June 24, 2020, the company announced the key elements of its medium-term plan, INNOVATION 2030.
Bumble Inc.: Addressing Existing Product Limitations Through AI & Other Innovations! – Key Drivers
- Bumble Inc.
- has reported an increase of 13% in its Q4 2023 revenue to $274 million, meeting its financial projections.
- This growth was propelled by a 16% rise in paying users, with contributions from both the Bumble and Badoo apps.
Oracle Corporation: Will The Expansion In Application Subscription Revenues Last? – Major Drivers
- Oracle Corporation’s Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings presented a mixed but predominantly positive picture.
- Chief Executive Officer Safra Catz noted excellent overall quarterly performance, with quarterly revenue meeting expectations and earnings per share exceeding it by $0.02.
- The company’s infrastructure cloud business (OCI) was singled out for significant praise, as it has become the main factor accelerating the overall revenue growth rate, even outpacing their cloud competitors.
Peloton Interactive: What Is The Impact Of The Recent TikTok & Lululemon Partnerships – Major Drivers
- Peloton Interactive, Inc., the manufacturer and seller of indoor exercise bicycles and treadmills, released its Q2 2024 result addressing several impactful issues regarding market penetration and sustainability.
- During the earnings, several overarching themes were pointed out, such as Tread and Tread+ growth, the strengthening of the all-important second leg to support growth, and the area’s substantial rise in renewal growth.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Itron Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Major Drivers
- This is our first report on Itron Inc., a leading provider of end-to-end solutions that measure, manage and analyze energy and water use.
- The company reported a strong performance for the fourth quarter of 2023 during its recent earnings conference call.
- The company posted year-on-year revenue growth of 23% to $577 million, driven by robust customer demand and improved supply chain balance.
[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$22) Rating Change]: Market Share Gain Ahead of Purported Recovery
- BZ reported 4Q23 revenue in-line/2.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 3.5%/21.9%, mainly attributable to effective cost control measures.
- We think the competitive advantages over peers grand BZ privilege to enjoy the early sign of hiring demand recovery, whereas overall China job market remains lackluster in early 2024.
- We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and rise TP by US$7.5 to US$22/ADS.
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