In today’s briefing:
- AEM: Another Solid Earnings Report, but Mr. Market Remains Worried on Outlook
- BliBli IPO Trading – Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower
- Shorting Setup on Additions to KS200/KQ150 with KODEX Battery ETF Flow
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-8% Upswing
- Coupang: Market Share Loss Likely Due to Launch of Naver’s 24 Hours Next Day Delivery Service
- Internet Initiative Japan (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Recovery Boosts Corporate DX Growth
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai U.S. Listco EV Deal, Germany Likely to Block China Co’s Factory Purchase
- FTT Liquidity Faces Key Test
- Apple Inc.: Latest Updates
- Mastercard Inc.: The Crypto Source Program & Other Drivers
AEM: Another Solid Earnings Report, but Mr. Market Remains Worried on Outlook
- AEM reported its best PBT 3Q and 9M22 results ever, yet investors remain skeptical of its FY23 outlook
- Management reiterated guidance and provided a bullish statement about the coming years
- AEM EPS likely to reach at least 0.42 SGD leaving the stock trading at only 7.8x P/E FY22
BliBli IPO Trading – Upsized, Priced near Top-End but Should Be Trading at Least 50% Lower
- PT Global Digital (BliBli) raised around US$517m in its Indonesian IPO, after using the upsize option and pricing its deal just below the top-end.
- BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions.
- In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.
Shorting Setup on Additions to KS200/KQ150 with KODEX Battery ETF Flow
- Korea’s partial short-selling system, implemented in May last year, created a new trading pattern, a surge in short selling for new additions, immediately after index rebalancing.
- Canaria Bio, HPSP, and SungEel Hitech are highly likely to be the primary targets for short selling, but there is one more thing we need to consider.
- KODEX will likely begin rebalancing buying on HPSP and SungEel on December 9, the same day the short-selling starts for them. So, we need a more flexible setup.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-8% Upswing
- TSM US has declined 35% since mid-August 2022 and 59% from its January 2022 peak.
- A new 2022 low of 59.43 was produced on Thursday 3 November amid extreme bullish ST momentum failure.
- Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-8% upside in the coming 1-2 weeks.
Coupang: Market Share Loss Likely Due to Launch of Naver’s 24 Hours Next Day Delivery Service
- In December 2022, Naver plans to launch its long awaited 24 hours delivery service (Naver Arrival Guarantee Solution), competing directly against Coupang’s “rocket delivery” services in Korea.
- Coupang’s valuations are not attractive at current levels and the heightened competition in the 24 hour delivery service market from Naver/CJ Logistics is likely to negatively impact Coupang.
- By providing 24 hours quick delivery service, Naver is expected to take away market share from Coupang from the fast delivery services in Korea.
Internet Initiative Japan (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mobile Recovery Boosts Corporate DX Growth
- Internet Initiative Japan (3774 JP) posted solid Q2 results with the best quarterly revenue growth since 2016 and a 12th consecutive quarter of margin expansion
- Results were driven by growth tailwinds for corporate digitization which was also visible in KDDI/Softbank results as well as a recovery in mobile which was not
- The company did not raise its full-year financial guidance despite an H1 beat but forecasts looks increasingly conservative
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai U.S. Listco EV Deal, Germany Likely to Block China Co’s Factory Purchase
- Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT) announced today that it will invest up to US$170m into Lordstown Motors Corp (RIDE US).
- The deal represents favorable terms for Hon Hai in our view, given the conversion price of preferred shares involved in the deal and the after-market price for Lordstown shares.
- Germany is expected to block a chip facility acquisition by Navtech Inc/China (300456 CH); Alibaba and Biren are slowing chip speeds due to U.S. curbs; Lithuan-Taiwan chip partnership.
FTT Liquidity Faces Key Test
- Price Movements: For the first time since April, Lido staked ether (stETH) now trades at parity with ETH.
- Market Liquidity: Coinbase reported lower than expected earnings due to a continued rout in trade volume.
- Derivatives: ETH perpetual futures volume is now higher than BTC volumes as traders pounce at renewed volatility.
Apple Inc.: Latest Updates
- Apple has been correcting along with broader markets and the company’s performance has also been hit by the Covid-19 outbreak in the Foxconn unit in China that produces iPhones.
- The company’s results were fairly good and it surpassed Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings with a good performance from iPhone, accessories, home, and wearables.
- Apple continues to grow its platform quite well in emerging markets with quite strong growth in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and India.
Mastercard Inc.: The Crypto Source Program & Other Drivers
- With the backdrop of cross-border travel continuing to improve and consumer expenditure remaining resilient, Mastercard delivered strong earnings and revenue growth in its latest result.
- Mastercard has expanded with gaming payouts, thus launching its Gaming Fast payout program.
- For addressing domestic, cross-border, and account-to-account payments, it has signed an agreement with leading worldwide B2B solutions and networks, Pagero.
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