In today’s briefing:
- Will Japan’s Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?
- China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries
- Ohayo Japan | Tech Wins Big as US Scraps Tariffs on Electronics
- Japan Morning Connection: US Higher Friday, but Trump Changing Tone over Electronics May Sour Mood
Will Japan’s Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?
- Japan is sending a delegation of top trade negotiators to the U.S, but both sides are making the same mistakes that led to WWII.
- I asked Grok to use game theory to map out the most likely scenarios for how Japanese and U.S. governments might avoid the worst-case scenario.
- According to Grok, both sides have a strong motivation to delay any agreement no matter what the other side offers.
China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries
- Lenovo (992 HK), AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Tcl Multimedia Technology (1070 HK) are the prime beneficiaries of Trump’s tariff exemption.
- On average, they have 24.5% of revenue from the US market, and their share price has collapsed 19.8% MTD. They are well set to have a decent rebound.
- There will be speculations that more exemptions in other sectors will be granted, and the big losers will see a relief rally.
Ohayo Japan | Tech Wins Big as US Scraps Tariffs on Electronics
- Despite the turbulence caused by Trump’s evolving tariff policies, the S&P 500 and Dow recorded their best weeks since 2023
- Apple and other tech firms benefit as Trump’s administration exempts smartphones, computers, and components like semiconductors from a 125% China tariff and a 10% global tariff
- Orbis Investments, holding 10% of Tsuruha, opposes its merger with Welcia Holdings, Japan’s top drugstore under Aeon
Japan Morning Connection: US Higher Friday, but Trump Changing Tone over Electronics May Sour Mood
- China retaliated against US made chips sending names like TXN, Globalfoundries and Intel lower.
- JPM earnings beat, although Dimon warns the Fed will need to step in the fix the Treasury market.
- Defence higher on the passing of Trump’s bill may see JP heavies names higher despite uncertainty.
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