Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Understanding the cattle cycle and more

• The cattle cycle is a long-term cyclical fluctuation in cattle inventory driven by economic signals
• Important metrics to consider include availability of female animals, profitability in feeding and cow-calf sectors
• Brazil and Australia are the main suppliers of beef to the US, with a large portion of imports being lean trim beef

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• Q424 revenues for the top 5 WFE players amounted to $28.7 billion, up 10% QoQ and up 21.7% YoY and an all time record high quarterly revenue for the segment
• For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to $99.74 billion, up 7% sequentially, and slightly exceeding our forecasted 5% growth.
• WFE growth in 2025 will be similar to 2024, with slowing China spending coupled with historic over capacity across the industry countering anticipated AI & technology transition related increases 

• US market closed for Presidents’ Day; The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.5%
• European defense stocks soared Monday, with BAE Systems, Thales, and Rheinmetall jumping over 7%, driven by NATO allies’ plans to boost defense budgets
• Japan’s economy grew 2.8% annually (0.7% QoQ) in the October-December period, exceeding forecasts, driven by external demand

• Many has cheered or felt relieved over Xi’s weekend meeting with the top Chinese business community. We see a closer relationship between the state apparatus and private enterprises going forward;
• January 2025 saw improvement in social financing, with meaningful recovery in corporate financing. Recovery for BOSS might be forthcoming;
• BYD dropped the bombshell in populating autonomous driving service (ADS) in sub-Rmb100K vehicles. We view it as another DeepSeek moment. The biggest loser is Tesla. Fast ADS rollout supports AGI.