In today’s briefing:
- Themes of India: A Deeper Look at Rural India’s Economic Rise
- Japan Weekly | Mixed Market but Plenty Going On
- China’s Ageing Population Challenge: Lessons from US Healthcare Spending
- Shroom Shmooz Psychedelics: Trends to Watch Going into 2025
- 2025 Outlook: Focus Is on Top Line – November 13, 2024
- The US Elections’ Impact on 2025 Outlook – November 13, 2024
- AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 15/11/2024
- Five Biopharma Trends for 2025 – November 13, 2024
Themes of India: A Deeper Look at Rural India’s Economic Rise
- The rural economy plays a crucial role in driving India’s growth, contributing just under half of the total GDP and providing livelihoods for about two-thirds of the population.
- The trend which is emerging is rural economy growing faster than urban, hence we deep dive into the what and why of this trend
- The urban slowdown has caused concern for India Inc’s earning growth.
Japan Weekly | Mixed Market but Plenty Going On
- The Japanese market ended the week on a mixed note, with the Nikkei 225 Index down 2.2%
- Stocks moves were largely dictated by earnings. Furukawa’s full year upward revision was a standout, while THK surprised the market with a punchy buyback
- Watchlist: ASICS continues to perform well and will upgrade its mid-term outlook this week. Nexon and Appier could be worth a look after recent stock price declines
China’s Ageing Population Challenge: Lessons from US Healthcare Spending
- China’s over-65 demographic is projected to grow by 50% in the next decade, driving increased demand for healthcare services, eldercare, and technology.
- The healthcare sector in China presents a significant investment opportunity as the country addresses the needs of its ageing population.
- Insights from the US, where healthcare spending is closely tied to an ageing population, can inform strategies for growth in China’s healthcare market, offering potential for long-term returns.
Shroom Shmooz Psychedelics: Trends to Watch Going into 2025
- For psychedelics, 2024 could be defined by the disappointing outcome of the FDA’s August review decision on Lykos Therapeutics’ (formerly MAPS) NDA for its MDMA-AT candidate for PTSD.
- The FDA’s decision flew in the face of the anticipatory excitement following the NDA submission and award of breakthrough therapy designation earlier in the year following impressive results from Lykos’ two- part Phase 3 trial.
- However, as disappointing as it is, particularly for the many millions of PTSD sufferers and Lykos, which subsequently reduced its workforce by 75%, in the grand scheme of things, this is only a temporary setback.
2025 Outlook: Focus Is on Top Line – November 13, 2024
- While our potential universe includes a broad range of branded consumer companies across the market capitalization, one corner of that universe that we have done a lot of work on over the years involves those companies utilizing a direct selling business model, which deploys a sales force of independent contractors to get their products in the hands of consumers.
- The top trend we are monitoring for 2025 is the impact that the burgeoning market for GLP-1 drugs has on the weight loss stocks.
- Two pure-play weight- loss names we monitor, MED and WW, have already been severely affected by the disruption caused by the GLP-1 drugs and have been on the defensive in recent years.
The US Elections’ Impact on 2025 Outlook – November 13, 2024
- Elections have consequences. The November 2024 elections in the US have ushered in not just a change in political landscape for the country and the makeup of the federal government but are likely to result in material changes to government policies and priorities for 2025 and beyond.
- These include international trade, the federal regulatory environment, and tax policies that can affect consumer sentiment, company strategies when it comes to capital deployment, and end market dynamics.
- While specifics could emerge in the coming months, we expect modest inflationary pressures from expected tariffs on imported goods to be largely offset by more constructive energy policies, tax incentives, and a reduced federal regulatory burden, along with a reduced federal government role in economic decision-making to lead to an improvement in economic growth in 2025.
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 15/11/2024
- Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well.
- Water disposal infrastructure operational.
- High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%.
Five Biopharma Trends for 2025 – November 13, 2024
- Biopharma will navigate the uncertainty that comes with the Trump presidency and his alliance with a populist healthcare agenda, but the less regulation-minded Republicans should be good for the group, reducing scrutiny on M&A and drug prices.
- We highlight five biopharma themes and trends heading into 2025.
- Less FTC scrutiny should drive biopharma M&A. Biopharma M&A has meaningfully slowed since mid-year, adding eight deals at >$50MM after the LLY-MORF acquisition in early July, which brings the YTD total to 34 and no longer on pace to exceed 2022 (43 deals) or 2023 (38 deals).
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