In today’s briefing:
- Thematic Report : Impact of Rate Cut on Markets
- Current Semi Surge Still Strong
- Ohayo Japan | Dow Breaks 42K
- Japan Morning Connection: Out-Of-Favour JP Autos May Be Squeeze Targets
- [Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/LI US/LKNCY US
- [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/BABA US/JD US/AMZN US/PDD US/SHEIN/VIPS US/3690HK/IQ US
Thematic Report : Impact of Rate Cut on Markets
- FED has finally decided to cut the interest rate by 50 bps and plans to another 50 bps cut in 2024.
- By end of 2025, policymakers expect 100 bps cut in rate and in 2026 another 50 bps cut.
- We analyse the impact of the rate cut on Indian Markets, and GDP.
Current Semi Surge Still Strong
- The semiconductor market is currently enjoying an AI-driven demand surge
- The past two demand-driven surges have turned into collapses as growth returned to the long-term trend
- When we compare the past two cycles to the current one, it appears that a collapse could occur relatively soon
Ohayo Japan | Dow Breaks 42K
- U.S. stocks soared Thursday, with the Dow Jones climbing 522 points (1.26%) to close above 42,000 for the first time
- European vehicle sales dropped 17% year-on-year to 755,000 units in August, with electric vehicle (EV) sales down 36%
- Japanese household financial assets reached a record 2,212 trillion yen (about $15.4 trillion) by June, rising 4.6% year-on-year, driven by higher share price
Japan Morning Connection: Out-Of-Favour JP Autos May Be Squeeze Targets
- Markets go risk-on with the Fed’s 50 bps cut a greenlight for AI/tech favourites to rebound sharply.
- New highs for homebuilders setting the tone for further gains the Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House, while logistics may be weak after FedEx numbers.
- Worth noting out-of-favour JP autos with high short interests and US sales ratios who may be squeeze targets with undeployed capital and foreigners coming back to the Japanese market post-Fed.
[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/LI US/LKNCY US
- ATAT US/TCOM US:Travel Volume During Mid-Autumn Holiday Slightly Increased Compared to 2019(+/+)
- 1519 HK/ZTO US: Parcel volume collection +28% yoy in prior week (+/+)
- XPEV US/LI US:Xpeng is rumored to launch an extended-range PHEV SUV next year.(///)
[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:NTES US/700 HK/BABA US/JD US/AMZN US/PDD US/SHEIN/VIPS US/3690HK/IQ US
- NTES US: <Hearthstone> PC Preload Begins, Official Return on September 25 (+)
- 700 HK: Tencent’s <Peacekeeper Elite> Tops iOS Grossing Chart After Major Gameplay Update.(+)
- 700 HK: Tencent’s FPS Game <Delta Force> Pre-launch Character Creation Event Starts, Launch on September 26 (/)
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