In today’s briefing:
- The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique
- Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Mixed; Tech Losses Deepen
- Intraday Trading in India: A Deep Dive into SEBI’s Insights and the Changing Landscape
- China to Be Top National Market for Aircraft in the Coming Two Decades, Boeing Predicts
- GLP-1s – Update 1
- # 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL
- Mat-Chem Notes – Between a Rock and a Hard Place – 2H24 Outlook
- Demand for AI Chips Might Cut Huawei’s Smartphone Semiconductor Short
The 3rd Plenum of CCPCC Announced An Courageous But Tough-To-Execute Communique
- We call the communique courageous because it pressed ahead on three fundamental, long standing issues of Chinese economy: fiscal revenue, social security and over-capacity;
- But we question its timing as well as the wisdom of staunch refusal to print money to revive consumption. In our view, such measure doesn’t run counter to the communique;
- We believe the likelihood points to prolonged slow recovery in consumption, investment, job market and eventually manufacturing. But we see positive momentum in healthcare, infrastructure and eventually consumption.
Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Mixed; Tech Losses Deepen
- US economy grew at a faster-than-expected 2.8% in the second quarter.
- Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.95% on Thursday, extending losses as investors sold off leading 2024 tech stocks
- Canon forecasts a 27% increase in net profit to 335 billion yen for fiscal year 2024, reaching a 17-year high
Intraday Trading in India: A Deep Dive into SEBI’s Insights and the Changing Landscape
- Intraday trading surged from 1.5 million traders in FY19 to 6.9 million in FY23, driven by accessibility and financial literacy.
- Despite rising participation, 71% of intraday traders incurred losses in FY23, highlighting the risks and need for careful trading.
- The high losses among new traders emphasize the importance of experience, risk management, and informed decision-making in intraday trading.
China to Be Top National Market for Aircraft in the Coming Two Decades, Boeing Predicts
- China is expected to be the largest national market for commercial airplane deliveries through 2043, Boeing Co. said, as the U.S. company resumed deliveries of its cash-cow 737 Max jets to Chinese airlines after a two-month pause.
- Boeing predicts 43,975 new commercial airplanes will be delivered globally over the next 20 years, according to its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook released Friday. That’s up from last year’s forecast of 42,595 aircraft.
- The manufacturer raised its forecast because it believes that air travel will have fully recovered from its pandemic-era slump by then, with demand even surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to a press release about the Outlook.
GLP-1s – Update 1
- The GLP-1 market is evolving at a rapid pace, and we have quickly moved onto the development of a triple agonist drug.
- First mover advantage is expected to lose steam as more effective GLP-1s are launched.
- Scary side effects; challenged patents and strong competition will favour the cost-effective producers.
# 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL
- HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates to 7.35% and 7.40% for specific tenors.
- Adani Green Energy starts 250 MW wind project, boosting total capacity to 2,250 MW.
- EQT exits RBL Bank with Rs 1,100 crore stake sale; shares drop 3%.
Mat-Chem Notes – Between a Rock and a Hard Place – 2H24 Outlook
- Heavy lithium. Halfway through the year, the S&P 500 has appreciated 15.4% YTD, driven by the strong performance of the Magnificent Seven, even as the remaining 490+ companies saw their stock prices move more in line with the Russell 2000, which itself posted an 7.8% gain YTD.
- Over the same timeframe, the WTR-CMI Index delivered a disappointing 4.4% gain under the weight of lithium and graphite companies losing 36-62% of their value due to collapsing lithium and synthetic graphite prices, driven by slower growth of EVs and steel production and liquidation of excess inventories by customers, built over the course of 2022-23.
Sticky costs remain as pricing power wanes. Over the course of 2022-23, many companies experiencing a rapid rise in raw material costs, driven by higher petrochemical prices and rising costs of transportation and logistics aggressively raised prices in an attempt to preserve profits, if not profit margins.
Demand for AI Chips Might Cut Huawei’s Smartphone Semiconductor Short
- US semiconductor restrictions are limiting China’s access to advanced AI accelerators, causing a widening gap in AI compute. The US will expand its lead over China to ~7x by 2025.
- Although China has domestic alternatives, bottlenecks due to separate US restrictions on semiconductor equipment are hindering yields and capacity expansions, effectively limiting China’s capacity to train state-of-the-art AI models.
- To maximize AI compute, Huawei will likely curtail smartphone semiconductors in favor of AI accelerators. We expect manufacturers offering mid-end Android devices like Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) to benefit first.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
