Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025 and more

In today’s briefing:

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;
More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies’ share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;
Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026.

China’s two biggest e-commerce companies reported higher sales from this year’s Double 11 shopping extravaganza, but kept tight-lipped about just how high, as they rolled out discount-heavy strategies to encourage reluctant consumers to spend.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc. had offered a slew of discounts to attract shoppers as the recovery in household consumption in the world’s second largest economy slowly gained momentum in recent months.
Alibaba said that both gross merchandise value (GMV) and order amount on Taobao and Tmall from Oct. 24 to Nov. 11 rose from the same period last year.

Market Watch: U.S. CPI disappointment led to a sharp yield drop, boosting growth stocks; Nikkei rose for a third week, Topix up 26% YTD; Expect lower volatility next week
Major Movers: Benesse (+33%) on MBO, Benefit One (+28%) on sale to M3, Ebara (+17%) & Horiba (+15%) on positive results. Speculation that Tsuruha (+13%) is open to offers
Activist Watch: Dalton and Strategic Capital start new positions in Iwaki Pumps and Teraoka Seisakusho respectively

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