In today’s briefing:
- Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/9/23
- Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries
- China TMT Update-PDD/BILI/BEKE-Grizzly’s Short Report/Suspends Download For “Pretty Derby”
- China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Pent-Up Demand Drives Robust Outlook
- US Banks – New HFD | Big Bnks CRE -0.2%, Big FD’s +80% | Sm. Bnks CRE +11% | LLR, Capital: Divergent
- China TMT Update-Luckin/Tencent/Sungrow/Jolywood/Jinko/Drinda-Moutai Latte/Hunyuan LLM/Sungrowinvest
Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/9/23
- TSMC, MediaTek, ASPEED and Nanya all announced August revenues with MoM growth, albeit YoY comps remind us that semiconductors are still very much in the depths of a downturn
- Global semi sales for July continued their MoM increase for the fifth consecutive month. YTD semi sales are down 18.7% YoY
- MediaTek and TSMC announced that the former has just produced its first chip on the latter’s 3nm process. Volume production of the Dimensity SOC will be in H2’24.
Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries
- OVERSEAS: SPX closed Friday +0.1% and Week -1.1%; US economy turning out to be stronger than expected – fueling persistence in high rates; China Autos Sales recovery in August
- JAPAN: NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle cabinet on Wed; Omron to make JMDC a subsidiary; Broker upgrades to BUY: JMDC, Nissan Chem, Toyo Tanso
- JAPAN X: FY23 Sees Keyence’s Salaries Hit New Heights . Not accident but result of high productivity. Want to raise wages – funnel labor into high productivity firms !
China TMT Update-PDD/BILI/BEKE-Grizzly’s Short Report/Suspends Download For “Pretty Derby”
- PDD – Our thoughts of Grizzly’s short report on PDD
- BILI: Bilibili suspends download access for “Shining! Umamusume: Pretty Derby” across All Platforms (-)
- Real Estate Industry Update: Four major banks in China will lower their mortgage interest rate for old loans.
China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Pent-Up Demand Drives Robust Outlook
- The 2Q23 earnings performance for China’s tourism and hospitality stocks provides clear evidence for the sector’s operational recovery. This will become even stronger into 2H23.
- Forward bookings for Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), H World Grp (1179 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) all point to encouraging underlying demand.
- Despite recent strengths in share price, consensus earnings upgrades have made their valuations even cheaper than three months ago.
US Banks – New HFD | Big Bnks CRE -0.2%, Big FD’s +80% | Sm. Bnks CRE +11% | LLR, Capital: Divergent
- Large US banks show -0.2% growth YoY in CRE loans at 30 August week, completely at odds with small US banks, showing 11.3% YoY growth, more than total loan growth
- Large time deposit at large banks are now up 80.1% YoY, accelerating, with only 1.95% YoY loan growth, negative implications for net interest income delta
- Small banks have 1.44% LLR/loans vs large banks at 1.85%; small banks have capital/loans at 15.2% vs 22.2% for large banks; despite small banks’ higher CRE lending
China TMT Update-Luckin/Tencent/Sungrow/Jolywood/Jinko/Drinda-Moutai Latte/Hunyuan LLM/Sungrowinvest
- Luckin Coffee: Moutai Latte will be a long-term selling product, but shortage of raw materials leads to temporary outage（/）
- Sungrow invested TopCon startup posted 2nd highest in energy conversion efficiency（/）
- Tencent officially published Hunyuan foundation model at Tencent GDES 2023
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