In today’s briefing:
- Osaka Casino Approved by Japan: Implications for Asia-Pacific Area Tied to Overall Growth Prospects
- Intel’s “5 Nodes In 4 Years” Is A Red Herring
- When Will the Korean Government Allow the Fourth Telco in Korea?
- China’s NEV Sales Are Both Surging and Sinking, Depending on the Company
- Internet Retail: EM Funds Raise Overweights
- ‘No,’ San Francisco Is Not a Commercial Real Estate Outlier!
- China TMT Update（Apr.20）700 HK/Jd/Baba/Vips/3690.hk/LEGN: Launches
Osaka Casino Approved by Japan: Implications for Asia-Pacific Area Tied to Overall Growth Prospects
- After countless delays, the first, and potentially biggest winner of the Japan IR license game is now reality as both MGM and its partner Orix begin development work.
- The US$9b to $10b property complex will debut in Osaka, by 2029. The area is already a top international tourist and business meeting center.
- Fears of dilution across Asia=Pacific casino countries are tempered by forward forecasts by researchers of healthy CAGR growth through 2030.
Intel’s “5 Nodes In 4 Years” Is A Red Herring
- In reality, with 18A already sampling since Q4 ’22, it’s effectively a done deal already
- Despite being “manufacturing ready” since December 2022, the first product based on Intel 4 likely won’t hit the shelves until Q4 ’23
- “5 nodes in 4 years” is meaningless unless qualified with unit volume, ramp speed and yield metrics. These are where the real challenges lie.
When Will the Korean Government Allow the Fourth Telco in Korea?
- In our view, the Korean government could allow a fourth major telco in Korea in the next 1-2 years.
- The launch of the fourth major telco in Korea would have a significant negative impact on the three existing Korean telcos.
- In the local media, the following companies have been mentioned as potential candidates to inject capital into the 4th telecom operator in Korea: Coupang, Naver, Kakao, Viva Republica, and Shinsegae.
China’s NEV Sales Are Both Surging and Sinking, Depending on the Company
- Major Chinese manufacturers’ new-energy vehicle (NEV) sales were all over the map in March, with companies that recently released budget-friendly cars outperforming their rivals amid a raging price war across the industry.
- Last month, NEV sales of BYD Co. Ltd., Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. Ltd., Li Auto Inc. and Nio Inc. grew 97.5%, 89.8%, 88.7% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively, according to company statements.
- The NEV category mainly covers pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Internet Retail: EM Funds Raise Overweights
- Record number of active EM funds overweight in Internet Retail, with 60.9% of funds overweight the iShares EEM ETF.
- Alibaba Group Holdings is the most widely held stock in Internet Retail, followed by JD.com Inc. and MercadoLibre.
- Growth investors remain optimistic about Internet Retail, while recent price declines prompt Value investors to raise allocations
‘No,’ San Francisco Is Not a Commercial Real Estate Outlier!
- Working from home in the San Francisco Metro area is not extreme. The office occupancy rate in all top ten US metro areas is 50% below pre-Covid levels.
- USD 2.5 trillion of CRE debt will mature in the coming five years and will have to be refinanced at much higher interest rates or doesn’t get refinanced at all.
- Value declines will force CRE borrowers to add capital or hand in the keys, which is bad news for US regional banks providing nearly 70% of CRE loans.
China TMT Update（Apr.20）700 HK/Jd/Baba/Vips/3690.hk/LEGN: Launches
- 700 HK： < Metal Slug: Awakenings > officially launches（ + ）
- LEGN: CARVYKTI C1Q23 revenue rebounded QoQ but below our expectation(/)
- JD/BABA/VIPS/3690.HK: March NBS consumption strengthened, especially apparel and catering (-/+/+/+)
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