In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak; IQPS Shooting for the Stars
- Stories Behind the Reported Nov 2023 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales
- 2024 China’s Capital Market Outlook – Santa Claus Is Knocking on the Door
Ohayo Japan | Winning Streak; IQPS Shooting for the Stars
- Overseas: SPX +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.4%; Six weeks of gains on strength in the job market
- Today: NKY Futs +0.7% v cash. JPY145/$; Private Equity interest in Tsuruha; Rohm & Toshiba JV on SiC chips
- JapanX: iQPS, a leader in small satellite SAR technology, recently debuted on the Tokyo Growth Market, securing funds to expand and provide vital real-time data for national security.
Stories Behind the Reported Nov 2023 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales
- More clear y/y improvement for 8/12″ raw wafer, WiFi IC, GaAs RF/VCSEL, and memory vendors but more y/y deterioration for OLED/LCD driver, LCD panel, design service, equipment/materials, and foundry vendors.
- GaAs RF and gaming GPU card vendors showed very impressive y/y sales growth of 54% and 63%, respectively. ABF substrate vendors showed the weakest sales decline of 34% among all.
- Except A Data (+2.5% m/m) and Phison Electronics (+5.6% m/m) might see stronger share price to reflect stronger November sales, most of others see good/bad news in the price already.
2024 China’s Capital Market Outlook – Santa Claus Is Knocking on the Door
- Based on Fisher’s Law M*V=P*Q, the interest rate hikes in the US and management issues in China have led to continuous decline of V, thus forming the illusion of deflation.
- The Fed’s rate hike is nearing its end. The huge amount of dollars need to be matched with corresponding assets. The only place with a matching assets pool is China.
- If there’s a serious economic stagnation, recession, combined with hyperinflation, there may be a historic great depression. How China will respond is the key to determine the future global landscape.