In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities
- Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish
- [Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet
- China TMT Update-BEKE/2150.HK/LI/NIO/XPEV-Supportive Policy on Home Purchase;August Vehicle Delivery
Ohayo Japan| US Equities Pause; Earnings Abound! NUGGET: Household Savings to Drive Equities
- OVERSEAS. US Equities take a breather as earnings intensify; WSJ saying Markets face threat from weak earnings; China ask banks to delay buying USD; Eurozone employment hits all-time low
- JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY 143.3; Earnings in full swing as a massive beat from Toyota – China doesn’t matter; MegaBanks MUFG, Mizuho Beat
- NUGGET. Push and pull factors are joining to push the massive Japanese household savings into the equity market. Its all coming together – watch out above !
Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish
- The El Nino is progressing, albeit slowly, in a volatile fashion. There is no significant impact yet on Southeast Asia’s oil palm areas although YTD, rainfall is already lower YoY.
- For edible oils, heat waves and drought continue to underpin elevated yield risks, with current focus on soybeans (U.S. and China), rapeseed (Canada) and olive oil (the Mediterranean.)
- The Plantation sector and CPO price have gained some traction, but it is early days. Maintain a bullish stance. Report contains new data on earnings mixes, maturity profiles and yields.
[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet
- We updated our revenue forecasts for ByteDance (China domestic) , with the industry models. We estimate that ByteDance’s domestic ad revenue/eCommerce GMV/local lifestyle GTV will grow by 17%/50%/134% this year.
- In the advertising space, we recommend Tencent and iQIYI. Both Tencent and iQIYI experienced a decline in their advertising revenue market share in 2022, followed by a rebound in 2023.
- In transactional GMV/GTV, we prefer Meituan and Pinduoduo. Meituan’s market share experienced a significant decline in 2022, but the decline rate is expected to narrow significantly this year.
China TMT Update-BEKE/2150.HK/LI/NIO/XPEV-Supportive Policy on Home Purchase;August Vehicle Delivery
- Real Estate Industry Update: Housing bureaus in China’s first tier cities pledge to draft supportive policy on home purchase（+）
- 2150HK: Nayuki teahouse average store revenue remains flattish YoY in July 2023（/）
- LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng update August vehicle delivery results (+/+//)
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