In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue – A Priority
- ANZ/Suncorp – Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval
- Credit Watch: The credit contraction has arrived… 5 charts from the ECB credit survey
- [Blue Lotus Japanese E-Commerce Sector Update]: Facing the Competition from Chinese ECommerce STAT
- Brazilian Value: The Trade of the Decade
- Australian Banks – High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims
- China TMT Update-NIO/BEKE/LEGN-NIO to Offer Single-Motor Model;Political Bureau Shifted Tone
Ohayo Japan| US Consumer Confidence; China Resolve Fuels Stocks; NUGGET:IT Talent Issue – A Priority
- OVERSEAS. US Stocks continue relentless run; Consumer Confidence hits 2 year high; New Resolve from China to help the economy; Alphabet reports strong earnings; MSFT AI biz growing
- JAPAN. NKY Futures -0.3% Discount to Cash; USDJPY 140.9; Earnings in full swing: Otsuka HD beats; Shimano Misses; Broker Changes: Nintendo cut to Sell at UBS
- NUGGET. Globally competitive wages – An National Security Issue. More evidence emerges: Now out of Vietnam
ANZ/Suncorp – Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval
- ACCC issued a new letter asking ANZ for 2 more weeks, for its decision to takeover Suncorp
- ACCC appears to be taking seriously the Stark Report which is very much against takeover
- Specifically, the ACCC indicates it needs more time to review ANZ’s rebuttal to the report
Credit Watch: The credit contraction has arrived… 5 charts from the ECB credit survey
- Here is a list of our top charts from the Q3 ECB Credit Survey.
- Just a few charts with a few words attached to them.
- The credit contraction is already a reality in Europe, but there are also signs of green shoots in the survey.
[Blue Lotus Japanese E-Commerce Sector Update]: Facing the Competition from Chinese ECommerce STAT
- We anticipate that the major swing factor of global e-commerce platform is the global expansion of Chinese e-commerce companies, including Shein, Temu, AliExpress, and TikTok Shop (or ‘STAT’).
- The Japanese market is a good example. We upgraded Mercari to BUY because we believe that its second-hand eCommerce model addresses the issue of product supply.
- We downgraded Z-Holdings to SELL as its B2C model lacks an advantage in product supply and has already lost market share.
Brazilian Value: The Trade of the Decade
- Value investing is often described as running towards the fire or seeking out disaster.
- Often, outstanding returns can be had as the market reverts from total capitulation, to merely bad.
- In the case of Brazil today, an investor is paying capitulation pricing for prospects that are already better than merely bad.
Australian Banks – High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims
- Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically
- Australia’s banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly
- There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ
China TMT Update-NIO/BEKE/LEGN-NIO to Offer Single-Motor Model;Political Bureau Shifted Tone
- NIO: NIO to offer single-motor model in sub-brand codenamed Alps (+)
- BEKE: Political Bureau of the Central Committee shifted tone on real estate regulation（+）
- LEGN: Janssen reported CARVYKTI sales US$117mn, lower than our expectation (-)
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