In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Surge
- China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?
- Japan Morning Connection: Solid Tech Rebound Ahead of the NVDA Developers Conference This Week
- [Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 11/52] Our First Read of Trumponomics
- [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas
Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Surge
- U.S. stocks surged Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 2.1% to 5,638 and the Nasdaq climbing 2.6% — their best day in 2025
- Sekisui House has entered a capital and business alliance with Tsuchiya Holdings, acquiring a 6.15% stake for hundreds of millions of yen
- Toyota Tsusho will acquire US-based auto recycler Radius Recycling for ¥134.4bn.
China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?
- Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.
- Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact.
- The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).
Japan Morning Connection: Solid Tech Rebound Ahead of the NVDA Developers Conference This Week
- Expect a strong follow through from Japan’s SPE despite a rare outperformance last week
- Laggards such as TEL, Screen and Micronics may be targets.
- Many mainstay EU defence names surged to new highs; expect heavies and JSW upside
[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 11/52] Our First Read of Trumponomics
- The market reflects on Trump’s economic policy to find the rationale behind. Our issue with Steven Miran’s proposal of strong -tariff/weak-dollar is whether it will bring back manufacturing to USA;
- Child birth policy from the capital of Inner-Mongolia could boost consumption and cost the country only Rmb100bn a year;
- BYD launches 1,000 V super charge. Xiaomi and XPEV talking about overseas expansion. LI Auto guided C1Q25 sharply lower.
[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 11/52]: Chinese Internet Making Inroads Overseas
- Competitors tried to leverage LLM to capture Baidu’s search market share;
- JD.com is actively seeking new, post-subsidy growth drivers, the latest being Europe while Red Notes launched US expansion. Deliveroo ceded HK market to Meituan;
- NetEase competitor announced major layoffs. Weibo disappointed in its C4Q24 earnings. Kingsoft has a winner game in pocket.
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