In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan: Risk-Off as Rates Hit Decade High; JapanX – Prime Market Slims Down
- US Banks – Added $122bn Cash In Past 2 Weeks | Loans up $31bn | CRE Loans Down | Deposits up $113bn
- [Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: What Change Can Mate 60 Bring to Games and Apps
- China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023
- China TMT Update-NIO/LI/XPEV/BEKE/NIO-Xpeng G9/Guangzhou Lift Purchase Restrictions/NIO Chip
- [Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: SMIC 7nm and 5nm Sufficient for Huawei Rejuvenation
Ohayo Japan: Risk-Off as Rates Hit Decade High; JapanX – Prime Market Slims Down
- OVERSEAS: SPX -1.6% as Treasury yields reached a 16-year high of 4.49%; labour market remains tight
- JAPAN: NKY Futures -1.6% v cash, JPY 147.5; Sankyo to buy back 17% of outstanding shares; NTV to buy Studio Ghibli
- JAPAN X: More mid-sized companies moving to TSE Standard Index after failing market cap threshold.
US Banks – Added $122bn Cash In Past 2 Weeks | Loans up $31bn | CRE Loans Down | Deposits up $113bn
- De-Risking is well in place in weekly balance sheet for US banks. Cash rose USD122bn in past 2 weeks, loans rose USD31bn, and deposits rose USD113bn. CRE loans are down.
- US banks’ LDR was rising a lot, from 58.6% low in week of 15 December 2021 to 69.3% in the most recent week’s data; they do not want the money.
- The increase in large time deposits, which cost more than other deposits, is now 82.8% YoY in the most recent week; this YoY growth was 71.0% just 9 weeks earlier.
[Blue Lotus Entertainment Sector Update]: What Change Can Mate 60 Bring to Games and Apps
- Blue Lotus expects Huawei’s smartphone shipment market share to grow 5ppt in 2024, of which 2ppt from Apple and 1.5ppt from Honor;
- The impacts are mainly two: (1) Huawei Appstore’s unique revenue share for games and apps, (2) Opportunity to recommend new games and apps through preinstallation;
- We see the biggest positive impact on subscription-based video apps and the biggest negative impact on mobile games. We reiterate our Top Pick in iQIYI.
China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023
- A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
- We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
- We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources
China TMT Update-NIO/LI/XPEV/BEKE/NIO-Xpeng G9/Guangzhou Lift Purchase Restrictions/NIO Chip
- NIO/LI/XPEV:Xpeng G9 facelift price cut exceeds expectations ( -/ -/ +)
- Real Estate Industry Update: Guangzhou lift purchase restrictions in outer regions, and property transaction activities are ramping sequentially（+）
- NIO：NIO released a self-developed chip, automotive operating system SkyOS , and NIO Phone（+）
[Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: SMIC 7nm and 5nm Sufficient for Huawei Rejuvenation
- We estimate that SMICs 7nm yield is >70% with capacity of 19k 7nm wafers per month. We expect SMIC will be able to ship 5nm by 2026 .
- We expect Huawei’s wafer demand to reach 18k~ 7nm per month, which would have revenue gain of US$ 550mn~ per quarter to SMIC. We raise SMIC TP to HK$ 27.
- We expect Huawei to reach 18% share of the China smartphone market in 2024. We expect Apple and Xiaomi’s China market share to decline by 2ppt and 0.8ppt YoY, respectively.
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