In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Megacaps Rally; Japan to Tighten in April?
- Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales
- China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context
- The cocoa question
Ohayo Japan | Megacaps Rally; Japan to Tighten in April?
- US stocks climb led by Nvidia (+2.3%) following strong TSMC results. Amazon and Microsoft stronger
- Japanese stocks set for strong open. NKY Futs point 1.4% higher; Former BoJ member expects end to low rates in April
- Suzuki delays launch of new EV but Honda unveils new EVs at CES; Daiwa House to acquire US home builder
Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales
- Y/Y improvement for LCD panel, 8″/12″ raw wafer, CMOS sensor, GaAs RF, cooling system, design service, and semi equipment and material vendors but y/y deterioration for PC/server and gaming vendors.
- After 9 vendors beating consensus, we might see smartphone IC and RF, semi equipment OEM, and design service vendors in US to report a better than expected 4Q23 sales/earnings.
- After 6 vendors missing consensus, we might see PC/general server IC and niche memory vendors in US to report a worse than expected 4Q23 sales and earnings.
China Macro-Property: The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) December 2023 Spike In Context
- China’s Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) data shows a spike in December, though 2023 still ended with a lower PSL increase than 2022
- The latest increase is seen by some as a signal of support ultimately for the property sector, though we think this is very different from the 2014-2015 stimulus
- The previous increases in 2022 were associated with support for the completion of unfinished development projects, and in 2014-2018, with shantytown renovation schemes, incl. “monetarization”
The cocoa question
In the past year, cocoa prices have spiked to elevated levels.
The culprit has been heavy rainfall in West Africa, leading to poor cocoa crops.
There’s nothing suggesting that the tightness in the cocoa market will end anytime soon.
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