In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan | Friday’s Gains Mask a Week of Fragility
- [Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 10/52] Smart Trump or Dumb Trump? Part II
- Japan Morning Connection: US Dip Buying for Tech Should See Dip Buying in Japan to Start.
- [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 10/52]: Manus Signals the Excitement of Innovation Has Sunk In
Ohayo Japan | Friday’s Gains Mask a Week of Fragility
- US stocks rose Friday—Dow and S&P 500 up 0.5%, Nasdaq 0.7%—but a volatile week, jobs data, and Fed restraint signal persistent uncertainty.
- The Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% amid a volatile week, hit by trade tensions, a strong yen, and tech losses, despite gains in industrial/defense stocks.
- Inpex plans to increase crude oil and natural gas production by 30% over the next decade; ACT will hold a press conference to discuss proposed acquisition of Seven
[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 10/52] Smart Trump or Dumb Trump? Part II
- The just concluded Two Sessions contained little surprises but the market shrugged it off. Have animal spirits offset China’s structural economic issues?
- China’s EV sector grew 38% YoY in the first two months of 2025, above our annual target of 30%. We stick to our bullish view. 2024 grew 41% YoY;
- MINISO explored spin off of its toy chain business. We maintain SELL rating on deteriorating China business.
Japan Morning Connection: US Dip Buying for Tech Should See Dip Buying in Japan to Start.
- Sandisk +9.7% on reports it will be hiking NAND prices by 10% in April. More to go for Kioxia and Kokusai Electric?
- Allegro running out of oomph but I would keep adding Sanken despite the jump.
- Nintendo -9.2% Friday on tariff concerns excessive ahead of upcoming Switch2 announcement in April.
[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 10/52]: Manus Signals the Excitement of Innovation Has Sunk In
- Chinese startup Manus launched a virtual AI assistant which we believe pointed to an important direction of monetization but the product itself has room for improvement;
- Douyin followed BABA to launch AI-based omni-channel-promotion ads tools. The recent trend in China Internet advertising has been AI-driven take rate increases;
- NetEase’s <Where the Winds Meet> seems to be a winner above our expectations.
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