In today’s briefing:
- Ohayo Japan |Canada Hikes-Impacts US ?! NUGGET:M&A Rsrch(9552), AI-Driven Ways of Doing Old Things
- The Europeanization of the US Banking System Is on Its Way!
- ANZ’s Suncorp Takeover – In Jeopardy
- Blue Lotus Macro: No Short-Term Investors in the Short Term, Summary of Our Tour of China.
- The Great Divide: Isetan and Hankyu Break Records as Regional Department Stores Close
- China TMT Update: Ke/Nio/JD/BABA/PDD-Douyin Launches Self-Operated (1P) Store; Nio’s ET5;
Ohayo Japan |Canada Hikes-Impacts US ?! NUGGET:M&A Rsrch(9552), AI-Driven Ways of Doing Old Things
- OVERSEAS. SPX fell -0.4% as UST Yields rose on back of surprise Canada hike; US swaps now pricing 67% Fed June skips vs 77% before; China Exports Collapse in May
- JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% Discount to Cash; Likely Consolidation in Japan today with Tech weakness; Govt Passes Defense Bill to support Industry profits; SBI HD to start Carbon Trading Exchange
- NUGGET. M&A Research (9552) -AI Driven Ways of Doing Old things in helping to solve the critical succession problem plaguing Japan’s SMEs
The Europeanization of the US Banking System Is on Its Way!
- The Fed is likely to present a new direction for regulation by the end of this month according to sources.
- A 20% increase in capital requirements for bigger banks is being pondered, but how will it impact liquidity and credit in case?
- The end-game is likely increased buffers and bond/cash holdings of banks. Bad for credit and lending growth but good for Government Bonds.
ANZ’s Suncorp Takeover – In Jeopardy
- New RBA rate hike puts increased pressure on banks, furthering rift between banks
- ACCC deadline to approve ANZ’s takeover of Suncorp Bank is moved to 28 July 2023
- Significant change in Australian banking metrics from July 2022 takeover proposal
Blue Lotus Macro: No Short-Term Investors in the Short Term, Summary of Our Tour of China.
- We continue to chat with venture capitalists (VC’s) and hedge fund managers in our tour of China.
- Our takeaway is that Chinese government intend to nurture local governments into VC’s to (partially) replace land finance as a pillar of fiscal revenue;
- The resulted policy measures and shifts will benefit STAR SSE as a politically oriented destination and EV/renewable sectors as national championships, at the expense of the consumer sector.
The Great Divide: Isetan and Hankyu Break Records as Regional Department Stores Close
- Some Japanese department stores enjoyed record sales in FY2022 but the gap in performance accelerated between city centre stores and the rest.
- While numerous regional properties continue to struggle, the best exemplars of urban department store retailing are flourishing as they become true luxury emporiums for the wealthy.
- Department stores have rarely provided growth in either sales or OP but there is now a chance that the better chains will emerge as quite profitable entities.
China TMT Update: Ke/Nio/JD/BABA/PDD-Douyin Launches Self-Operated (1P) Store; Nio’s ET5;
- KE Holding: China State Media call for loosening on purchase restrictions in 1st tier cities (+)
- NIO: NIO to launch ET5 Touring on June 15（ +）
- JD/ BABA/ PDD: Douyin launches self-operated (1P) ecommerce store (-)
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