In today’s briefing:
- NVIDIA Q425 Beats, Raises, Market Yawns, Then Vomits. A Lake Wobegon Moment Perhaps?
- China Banks – If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive
- #111 India Insight: Axis Bank, India Solar Push, PAG Sell: $1B+ Deals in Focus
- Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling
- Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid
- AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 28/02/2025
NVIDIA Q425 Beats, Raises, Market Yawns, Then Vomits. A Lake Wobegon Moment Perhaps?
- Q425 revenues were a record $39.3 billion, up 78% YoY, up 12% QoQ, handily beating the guided midpoint of $37.5 billion. It was NVIDIA’s eight consecutive quarter of sequential growth.
- After taking an overnight break to consider its options, the markets then positively vomited on NVIDIA, sending its share price down 8.5% on Thursday
- Jensen presents a utopian, Lake Wobegon-esque vision of all pervasive AI but in reality the pace of AI adoption will ultimately be determined by the pace of AI revenue generation
China Banks – If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive
- There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China’s banks through a government capital injection
- This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for ABC and BoCom.
- Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs
#111 India Insight: Axis Bank, India Solar Push, PAG Sell: $1B+ Deals in Focus
- Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) is considering a majority stake sale in its shadow-banking unit, Axis Finance, valued at $900 million-$1 billion.
- India plans a $1 billion subsidy to boost domestic solar wafer and ingot production, reducing reliance on China.
- PAG, backed by Blackstone (BX US) , is exploring the sale of its 54% stake in Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN) Management for $1.2 billion.
Japan Strategy Weekly | Tech Stocks Bore the Brunt of Selling
- Japanese markets experienced significant pressure this week, with the Nikkei 225 falling 4.2% and the Topix declining 2%
- The week was dominated by escalating global trade tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump announced multiple tariff initiatives.
- Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, particularly chip and AI-related companies including Disco (-19%), Tokyo Electron (-12%), and Advantest (-15%).
Department Store Sales Higher than Pre-Covid
- That department stores in city centres did well in 2024 won’t be a surprise to anyone given the support from inbound tourists buying luxury goods on a cheap Yen.
- But that the sector overall managed to exceed 2019 sales is an achievement given the ongoing contraction in the regions.
- The gap is widening further between the best and the rest but the top firms look set to continue increasing profits as they work to add value to existing buildings.
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 28/02/2025
- AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed carbonate formation intervals boosts production to >12 mboe/d – Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well.
- As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days.
- Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seismic data, five additional well candidates with similar geologic characteristics have been identified.
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