In today’s briefing:
- Japan Weekly | Stocks Slump, Oracle Outperforms, Activists Accumulate
- China Banks: Depressed Positioning
- US Big Banks – Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total
Japan Weekly | Stocks Slump, Oracle Outperforms, Activists Accumulate
- Japanese stocks limped towards the end of the quarter, with Topix ending the week -2.2% lower. Bond yields hit 10 year high and yen ended play at Y149/$
- Economic momentum may be slowing and tech stocks plumbing new lows, but Oracle Japan surprised the market with 12% top line growth in the first quarter.
- Yet more foreign / activist buying in the drug store sector. Consolidation is the story and Orbis want to write the ending.
China Banks: Depressed Positioning
- Fund exposure to China & HK Banks closes in on lowest levels on record
- Asia Ex-Japan investors prefer Indian and Indonesian Banks, whilst Tech/Internet industry groups dominate portfolios.
- China & HK Banks stand as the largest industry underweight, with 87% of funds positioned below the benchmark. Underperformance is expected.
US Big Banks – Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total
- Weekly balance sheets to 20 September show worsening general trends for large US banks, that can point to risk aversion, and worse net interest income and profit delta.
- Loan growth ratcheted well lower from 2.04% YoY three weeks ago, to 1.89% two weeks ago and now to 1.54% in most recent week’s data. CRE loans see worsening contraction.
- Large US banks continue to accelerating growth in Jumbo Time Deposits, now at 89.0% YoY vs 85.8% in preceding week. These are now 6.8% of deposits, 2.1% higher WoW.
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