In today’s briefing:
- Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs
- Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Recession Fears, Higher Rates, Tariffs…
- A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal
- Biopharma Week in Review : Pharma Tariffs Overhang; Worrying Vaccine Comments from RFK Jr.
- Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Blue Biofuels (BIOF): Breaks Ground in Florida
Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs
- Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.
- The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.
- HF’s zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Recession Fears, Higher Rates, Tariffs…
- Policy/tariff volatility, stock and bond market volatility, falling consumer and business confidence, stagflation fears, higher interest rates, tariffs, inflation concerns, and worries that the US may already be in a recession have dominated the headlines over the past week.
- The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 0.4%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was up 2.9%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index was up 1.5% as the broader markets rebounded as well, with the S&P 500 and Dow 30 gaining 5.9% and the R2K up 2.6%
The Atlanta Fed suggests that the US may be in recession already (Figure 1), at least according to its GDPNow model, which aims to provide something closer to a real-time read on the state of the economy (1).
A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal
- The US economy’s resilience hasn’t come from the many – it’s come from the top 10% as the “wealth effect” from rising asset prices has boosted spending.
- But it works in reverse too. Since the richest make up nearly half of America’s consumer spending, that could lead to a serious economic fallout.
- It’s worth considering protecting your portfolio. I’ve pulled together one list of companies that should do well and another that could suffer from the change in climate.
Biopharma Week in Review : Pharma Tariffs Overhang; Worrying Vaccine Comments from RFK Jr.
- Biopharma lagged as Trump’s pending pharma tariffs loom.
- The 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs was a short-lived reprieve for biopharma, as Trump later clarified pharma tariffs were not part of the pause.
- After a second unvaccinated child died from measles (three deaths total), RFK Jr. endorsed the vaccine as the most effective way of prevention.
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Blue Biofuels (BIOF): Breaks Ground in Florida
- The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.4% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 5.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.8%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 7.4%).
- Energy Technology (12.6% of the index) was up 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.7% of the index) was up 5.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 1.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.5% of the index) was up 3.3%.
- Top 10 Performers: ALTA, FGPHF, AVL, VGAS, VIHD, LNZA, FHYD, OPTT, GWTI, LIDR
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
Unlock all research summaries