In today’s briefing:
- India Agri-Allied: Thematic Series
- Douyin Shopping Mall Unlikely to Be a Game Changer
- China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery
- China Says Goodbye to COVID-19 and Reopens Borders – Here Are Some Points Worth the Attention
India Agri-Allied: Thematic Series
- ‘Agflation’ to buoy India’s Ag economy, linking of crop to fuel key inflation catalyst
- Low capital formation, high capital productivity – a paradox, improving cashflows to drive capex led consumption growth
- Companies that cater to farm economy are primed for accelerated multi-year growth and valuations don’t adequately capture future earnings potential
Douyin Shopping Mall Unlikely to Be a Game Changer
- Douyin eCommerce next important step is Douyin Shopping Mall, an in-app page like Taobao/PDD.
- We are conservative about Douyin Shopping Mall’s potential, and we suggest that it could only reach 20% of Douyin eCommerce GMV in the long term.
- We suggest that the slowdown growth of Douyin eCommerce will be positive to BABA mostly, and then followed by PDD and JD. Kuaishou is encountering similar issues with Douyin.
China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery
- We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.
- Bytedance’s slowdown, Tencent’s Video Account, and some sectors’ uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.
- We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.
China Says Goodbye to COVID-19 and Reopens Borders – Here Are Some Points Worth the Attention
- China will manage COVID-19 with measures against Class B infectious diseases, instead of Class A infectious diseases, in a major shift of its pandemic response policies. Zero-COVID policy has ended.
- In 2023H1, China could still be in the period of pandemic adjustment/recovery. However, this does not mean that there is no good trading opportunity. We’re optimistic about the upcoming rebound.
- Due to favorable policies, the market would continue the playbook of economic recovery in short term.Compared with other countries, China’s still one of the few growth engines in the world.
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