In today’s briefing:
- Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; “Too Early for BOJ Exit”
- China EV Outlook: 2023 Will Be a Year of Divergence
- The Innovations Portfolio – Week Nine
- Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 1/23
Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; “Too Early for BOJ Exit”
- OVERSEAS. SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds; Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members; Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.
- JAPAN. NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6; CORE Inflation hits 4%; Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit; Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022
- DAILY NUGGET. Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off.
China EV Outlook: 2023 Will Be a Year of Divergence
- CPCA reported China’s 2022 EV sales of 6.49mn units, + 96.1% YoY, primarily driven by better market acceptance of EVs and favourable EV policies.
- We think the fiercer competition will lead to divergence, which is already proven by Tesla’s price war. The followers such as Xpeng, could only be price takers and sacrifice margin.
- We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, as 1) better profitability; 2) positive growth outlook in 2023. We cut NIO’s TP to US$ 18.
The Innovations Portfolio – Week Nine
- The three companies we write about this week are ASML Holding NV (ASML US) , Bayer AG (BAYN GY) and Gentex Corp (GNTX US)
- We included ChatGPT’s innovation assessment for the three companies in the report. The qualitative commentary of ChatGPT though fluffy does somewhat reflect our quantitative assessment from technical literature.
- For the nine weeks since inception ended 20 Jan the combined innovation portfolio was +3.5%, versus DJIA -1.1%, S&P500 +0.2%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Russell2000 +1.0%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF +3.1%, all in US$ terms
Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 1/23
- Hope everyone had a nice weekend! Collisions Ahead? As some food for thought, I am listing out a few “collisions” I am focusing on in the short to intermediate term that I believe are important signposts to monitor.
- I am calling them collisions for now because markets usually never follow a nice and simple linear movement as competing forces, new trends, data, and developments emerge which is what make markets interesting and extremely difficult to predict in the short term.
- Below are 4 “collisions” I am keeping on eye on.
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