In today’s briefing:
- Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET – Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain
- Japan’s Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption
- No Signs of a Chip Recovery
- Asia Gaming: Macau Recovery Gaining Momentum at a Level Surprisin Analysts and Industry Execs:
- Samsung Q1 2023 Profit Collapse Triggers Memory Production Cut Promise In Regulatory Filing
- China TMT Update(Apr.12)-BIDU/BABA/SE/PDD/SHEIN – More Companies Announce Large Language Models
Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET – Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain
- OVERSEAS. SPX flat on the day as catalysts lacking; Tech down ahead Wed’s CPI as momentum builds for rate hike; Broad strength in cyclicals – underlying economic strength?
- JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 133.7;Buffet says he looking to raise Japan equity weighting; MHI awarded big defense contract for missiles: Denso gears up for EV transition
- NUGGET. Toyota gets serious in BEVs – we are excited about the prospects for the supply chain, particularly Denso and Panasonic
Japan’s Supermarkets: The Coming Disruption
- With food inflation exceeding 8% in December, prices have become the focus for all supermarket retailing.
- This is good news for those that are set up for price competition but it presents a serious challenge to the majority of chains.
- The net result will be a widening gap in performance between the best and rest, with the former delivering both top line growth and rising margins.
No Signs of a Chip Recovery
- Semiconductor revenues remain in a decline, although that decline has slowed.
- Prices appear to have reached cost. They should follow cost declines until a shortage returns.
- The timing of the next shortage is still in question.
Asia Gaming: Macau Recovery Gaining Momentum at a Level Surprisin Analysts and Industry Execs:
- Just before Beijing lifted zero covid, proejctions for the 2023 year ranged from US$9B TO US$16B. Bothe have proven significantly below revised estimates now.
- Since the end of zero covid, JP Morgan and USB have lifted their Macu GGR projects to US$22b. Our analysis effective with end of 1Q23 ranges higher to ~US$24–US$25b.
- Adding non-gaming revenue at 14% to expected GGR is above the historic 10% pre-covid. Moving more non-gaming revenue is mandated by Macau’s extension of concessions.
Samsung Q1 2023 Profit Collapse Triggers Memory Production Cut Promise In Regulatory Filing
- Samsung’s Q1 2023 operating profit has collapsed to 0.6 trillion Korean won (TKW), down from 4.31 TKW in Q2 2022 and 14.12 TWK in Q1 2022
- A promise to “meaningfully lower” memory production sent competitor shares soaring, presumably in anticipation of a faster end to the current memory downturn.
- The memory production cut report is elusive and vaguely attributed. We don’t anticipate a return to meaningful profitability in the memory segment until Q1 2024.
China TMT Update(Apr.12)-BIDU/BABA/SE/PDD/SHEIN – More Companies Announce Large Language Models
- BIDU ：More companies announce / release large language model projects（-）
- BABA / SE: Brazil cancels tax exemption for cross-border ecommerce (-)
- PDD: Shein begins inviting 3P merchants to its platform (-)
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