In today’s briefing:
- Good Morning Japan |Fed Minutes Sinks Equities; NUGGET:Japan Post－Capital Mgmt, DX, Drones; Low PBR
- The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 42
- The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 40
- China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!
- A Different View on Global CDMO – The Industry Trend, the Major Players, and the Outlook
- Nanya Q1 2023 Revenue Declines 19.2% QoQ
- China TMT Updfate(Apr.13)- Nio/700hk/Baba:Alibaba Unveils Plans for LLM AI and Cloud Price Cuts (+)
Good Morning Japan |Fed Minutes Sinks Equities; NUGGET:Japan Post－Capital Mgmt, DX, Drones; Low PBR
- OVERSEAS. Inflation Benign but Fed Minutes point to (mild) recession with Hawkish bent for addl rate hikes; US Equities close in the red, giving up early CPI driven gains
- JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.6% vs CASH; USDJPY 133.1; Japan Population falls below 125 million in 2022 – increases worries on low birthrate/aging society; Activists gear up ahead of Japan AGM
- NUGGET. Japan Post (6178) – this low pbr stock is undergoing transformation in many areas – from balance sheet to operations. If they can execute….
The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 42
- We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
- Seven stocks remain, and seven stocks added to our portfolio
- Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%
The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 40
- We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
- Four stock remains, and 10 stocks added to our portfolio
- Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 106% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 61%
China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!
- Foreign exchange gains/losses are major swing factors in FY22 results of many companies and we think investors may have overlooked their importance in driving FY23 earnings.
- With Rmb/USD exchange rate appreciated YTD, reversing the 8.5% depreciation in last year, the demons of many companies in last year will become positive earnings contributor.
- Shenzhen International (152 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) and Kunlun Energy (135 HK) are key beneficiaries, while CIMC Enric (3899 HK) may turned into exchange losses.
A Different View on Global CDMO – The Industry Trend, the Major Players, and the Outlook
- The market of biopharmaceuticals and CDMO keeps growing, with CAGR of about 10%. However, CGT is the “outlier”. The whole story of CGT business isn’t persuasive at the current stage.
- Lonza is still the leader.WuXi bio has secured the second place. Samsung Biologics is catching up in terms of profit margin. Different production capacity structures can bring about different changes.
- Industry concentration of CDMO would further increase, making it difficult for new entrants to seize orders from Top CDMOs.We advise investors not to spend too much time on small CDMOs.
Nanya Q1 2023 Revenue Declines 19.2% QoQ
- ASPs & bit shipments decreased by high single digits percent QoQ
- Anticipated recovery in H2 ’23 will be slow & gradual
- The potential for inventory write-downs remains a headwind but March revenue MoM increase is a hopeful sign
China TMT Updfate(Apr.13)- Nio/700hk/Baba:Alibaba Unveils Plans for LLM AI and Cloud Price Cuts (+)
- NIO: Wait times for NIO ET5 shortened to 2 weeks (-)
- 700HK: Tencent games now able to buy traffic on Bytedance (+)
- BABA: Alibaba unveils implementation plans for its LLM AI and price cuts for Cloud (+)
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