In today’s briefing:
- Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January
- Ohayo Japan | US Shares End Higher; Powell Hints at Rate Cuts
- Druckenmiller’s Gold Miner Bet
- [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/700 HK/BABA/SHEIN/PDD/3690 HK/BIDU
- E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation
- [Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV/ 1810 HK/LI/NIO/ZLAB/BGNE/MNSO
- Renewable Energy And “Grade”
Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January
- It’s the first MoM decline in semi sales since February 2023, but it’s a seasonal thing & YoY comparisons continue to grow stronger.
- Forecasting 10% YoY growth in 2024 semiconductor sales, in line with TSMC’s outlook
- $1 trillion in annual semiconductor sales will likely happen in 2032 based on a 7.7% CAGR over the coming decade.
Ohayo Japan | US Shares End Higher; Powell Hints at Rate Cuts
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirms potential interest rate cuts, pending sustained evidence of inflation slowdown.
- ADP National Employment Report shows private sector job growth in February, surpassing January but missing Wall Street predictions
- Japanese firms enact substantial job cuts despite stock market surge, reflecting strategic restructuring amid rising wages.
Druckenmiller’s Gold Miner Bet
Stan Druckenmiller just bought shares in Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining.
He thinks gold serves as a store of value, but only over the long run. It’s a hedge against any devaluation of the US Dollar.
He also seems to think that gold prices should go up in a scenario of lower interest rates, higher inflation rates or a combination of both.
[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/700 HK/BABA/SHEIN/PDD/3690 HK/BIDU
- NTES/700 HK : NPPA has released the February approvals for domestic game codes, with <Black Myth: Wukong> and <Naraka Mobile> receiving approval. (+)
- NTES: NetEase has established a new overseas studio, led by former <Call of Duty> designer.(+)
- BABA/BIDU/700 HK: Alibaba Cloud announces steep discounts on hardware products (+/-/-)
E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation
- E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022.
- By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.
- As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.
[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV/ 1810 HK/LI/NIO/ZLAB/BGNE/MNSO
- LI/XPEV/NIO: Li, Xpeng and GAC AION announced new price actions（+/+/-）
- ZLAB: Zai Lab’s revenue growth in 4Q23 is weak, and loss narrowing is limited （-）
- 1810 HK: Qualcomm exhibited a number of client-side LLM products at MWC Barcelona, covering mobile phones, PCs and communications（+）
Renewable Energy And “Grade”
- Renewables as extractive industries: Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are extractive industries that depend on the “grade” of the natural resource to achieve sustainability, a three-dimensional concept that includes economics, social acceptance, and environmental considerations.
- The problem of low-grade resources: Deploying renewables in areas where the resource grade is too low imposes macro-level costs on the electrical system and reduces its economic and environmental sustainability through the inefficient deployment of limited resources.
- The problem of high-grade resources: Deploying too many renewables in areas where the resource grade is high causes value deflation, lowers the revenue of the projects, and impairs micro-level sustainability.
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