In today’s briefing:
- Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight
Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight
- Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
- Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
- SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).
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